Australians anticipating a reduction in interest rates this November might need to remain patient, as recent key inflation statistics have exceeded expectations.

According to the latest reports from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the consumer price index surged by 1.3 percent in the September quarter. This marks the most significant quarterly increase since March 2023. Additionally, the trimmed mean, which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) uses to gauge underlying inflation, rose by 1.0 percent.

On Monday, Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock indicated that even a 0.9 percent rise in the trimmed mean would represent a “material miss” from their projections.

Over the past year, headline inflation escalated beyond the RBA’s target, reaching 3.2 percent by September, up from 2.1 percent in June. This figure is the highest seen since June 2024. Meanwhile, the trimmed mean climbed to 3.0 percent, up from 2.7 percent.

This period also marks the first instance since December 2022 where the annual trimmed mean has increased from one quarter to the next.

Economists had been expecting the CPI to come in at 3.0 per cent, while core inflation had been forecast to stay at 2.7 per cent.

9News money editor Effie Zahos said the unexpected surge had ended any chance of a rate cut in November.

“This was the missing piece of the puzzle before the RBA meets next week on Melbourne Cup day,” she said.

“And you can guarantee there’ll be no rate cut. I mean, that’s my opinion. It’d be interesting to see the commentary flowing…

“These are not the numbers we wanted to see. So the chance of a rate cut, now the market is saying just 12 per cent for next Tuesday.”