Truckers Project 40% Decline in Baja to California Deliveries by End of 2025

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SAN DIEGO (Border Report) — Companies involved in trucking across the San Diego-Tijuana border anticipate a significant decline, approximately 40 percent, in the volume of goods transported to the United States by the year’s end.

Alfonso Millán Chávez, who represents the Northern Baja California Chamber of Freight Transporters, noted that while October and November typically see a surge in cross-border deliveries, this year has deviated from the norm.

“As we approach the final months of the year, it’s evident that it has been a challenging period for us in the transport sector,” Chávez remarked.

In related issues, truck drivers report that while California presents fewer hurdles, states like Texas and Arkansas pose significant challenges for non-English speakers.

Data from Mexico’s Secretary of the Economy revealed that in May of the previous year, $4.4 billion in goods were exported to the U.S. from Mexico. In contrast, this May saw a reduction to $3.5 billion.

“This just proves we’ve had a very complicated year.” he said.

He blames the slowdown on tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding their implementation.

“All they are doing is discouraging investment, all it’s done is generate restlessness in commerce along the border,” Millán Chávez said.

Millán Chávez believes the pattern to continue next year.

“We’ve had a drop in volume in truck crossings, let’s hope in 2026 we see a recovery, we’re hoping for a spike in business to reach our budgetary goals next year.”