Once upon a time, a group of experts dedicated their careers to deciphering the inner workings of the Soviet Union. Many hailed from Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, where they became adept at scrutinizing videos, images, and tedious Russian memos. Their task was almost mystical, akin to performing rituals under a full moon to predict the fate of Soviet leaders—who was gaining favor, who was falling out of grace, and in some cases, whose fortunes had plummeted to the point of a sudden descent from a hotel window. Nowadays, these analysts have mostly retired, grappling with the inconvenience of suspended SNAP benefits, while a new generation turns its analytical gaze towards Communist China.

It’s a pity, really. Their expertise is sorely needed at the moment.

The rumor mill, often referred to as RUMINT, is buzzing with speculation that Sergey Lavrov, the shadowy right-hand man of Vladimir Putin and his Foreign Minister, might be on the way out. While no one suggests his departure is definite, in the unpredictable world of Russian politics, a seamless exit is rarer than a perfect score in a high-stakes dive judged by a panel of skeptics.

Lavrov’s journey with Putin began when he served as Permanent Representative to the UN. Since his appointment as Foreign Minister in 2004, he has been an inseparable ally to Putin.

Here’s how the story unfolds.

This is the story.

In the aftermath of the Anchorage summit, Putin felt himself ascendant. He was treated like literal royalty by President Trump, and there was some chatter of a thaw in the relationship. But clearly, the matter was in flux because Trump made noises about transferring Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles to Ukraine. In what might be seen as a foreshadowing of Lavrov’s downfall (if the story pans out), Dmitry Medvedev, a man whom Putin uses to send up trial balloons and threaten nuclear holocaust, delivered a predictable diatribe; see Kremlin Mouthpiece Warns US Sending Tomahawk Missiles to Ukraine May End Badly, Especially for Trump.

On October 15, President Trump had a phone call with Putin. The upshot of that phone call was shockingly optimistic given the actions by Russia in Ukraine: “President Putin and I will then meet in an agreed-upon location, Budapest, Hungary, to see if we can bring this ‘inglorious’ War, between Russia and Ukraine, to an end.” He went on to announce that he would meet with Putin in Budapest, Hungary, to end the war, and the groundwork for that meeting was delegated to Secretary of State Marco Rubio; see Peace President Never Rests: Trump Announces Meeting With Putin to End ‘Inglorious’ Ukraine War – RedState.

On October 17, Zelensky met President Trump at the White House; President Trump Meets Ukraine’s President Zelensky – Topic, Russia – RedState. The optics were excellent, but the inside scoop from that meeting has Trump attempting to browbeat Zelensky into accepting Putin’s maximalist demands. 

The shoe dropped on October 21, when President Trump announced the Budapest summit was off; see Trump Cancels Budapest Summit After Russia Signals It Will Not Budge on Cease Fire Pre-Conditions – RedState.

This is where Lavrov comes in.

Apparently, the phone call between Rubio and Lavrov didn’t go well. In fact, it went spectacularly bad and led the White House to conclude that Trump was being played because Russia had no desire to end the war; see Putin Is Using Muhammad Ali’s Tactics When Dealing With Trump’s Ukraine Peace Efforts – RedState. 

Lavrov falls out of favor

The Kremlin is looking for someone to blame after the collapse of the planned Putin–Trump talks in Budapest.

According to Russian insiders, responsibility has been pinned on the Foreign Ministry. Its memo — filled with unrealistic, almost… pic.twitter.com/uxn7cUlJyM

— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) November 3, 2025

The Kremlin is looking for someone to blame after the collapse of the planned Putin–Trump talks in Budapest. 

According to Russian insiders, responsibility has been pinned on the Foreign Ministry. Its memo — filled with unrealistic, almost ultimatum-like demands — reportedly angered Trump and led to the meeting’s cancellation. 

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has become the main scapegoat. Western media have already named him a key reason for the cooling of U.S.–Russia relations. 

Ironically, Lavrov tried to impress Putin by taking a hard line with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio — but overplayed his hand. He came unprepared, refused to discuss compromise, and rigidly repeated the Kremlin’s instructions on Ukraine. 

Washington took the tone as confrontational and shut the door. The Trump administration made it clear: they won’t negotiate under threats. 

Now, through leaks to Kommersant, Russia’s Foreign Ministry is trying to deflect blame, claiming Lavrov only followed prior agreements reached in Alaska. But sources say Putin was furious — Lavrov narrowly avoided being accused of sabotage for derailing a critical summit. Kremlin emissary Kirill Dmitriev has since flown to Washington to calm tensions. 

Lavrov’s position is now visibly weakened. Like Shoigu before him, he’s turning from a power player into a scapegoat. 

Adding insult to injury, a harsh piece in the Financial Times reportedly hit the Russian foreign minister “where it hurts most.”

Key points from the Financial Times piece were:

The US cancelled President Donald Trump’s planned Budapest summit with Vladimir Putin after a Russian memo to Washington holding firm to hardline demands on Ukraine was swiftly followed by a tense call between the two countries’ top diplomats, said people familiar with the matter.

and

“Lavrov is clearly tired and seems to think he has better things to do than meet or engage with the United States, whatever President Putin may want,” the person familiar with the matter said.

You don’t have to be a genius to see how this could happen. It is easy to imagine that Lavrov did not take Rubio seriously and tried to dominate him. From what we’ve seen, this is a sub-optimal strategy when dealing with Rubio. You also don’t have to be a genius to understand Lavrov’s point of view at seeing two decades of diplomatic progress burned to the ground over Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. 

The cancellation of the proposed summit was immediately followed by U.S. sanctions on two Russian oil companies; see US Sanctions Russian Oil, Sorta; European Weapons Strike Deep in Russia; and Medvedev Howls About War – RedState. Unfortunately for Lavrov, Putin really wanted, and I think needed, the second summit to move Trump farther from Brussels and Kiev on the war and much closer to Moscow’s point of view. If nothing else, it would definitely rattle Zelensky’s cage.

Even though Kremlin spokesman Dmitry “Pornstache” Peskov has denied any rift, there are data points that indicate otherwise.

Tuesday, Putin signed a decree, appointing a more junior official, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office Maxim Oreshkin, to head up Russia’s delegation to the upcoming G20 summit in Johannesburg. For the last two decades, Lavrov has led Russia’s delegation to these high-profile events. On Wednesday, Lavrov was conspicuously missing from a Russian Security Council meeting, of which he is a permanent member, when President Vladimir Putin floated the possibility of full-scale nuclear testing.

Is Lavrov gone, or is this a lover’s quarrel soon to be patched up? At this point, we don’t know. What we do know is that for all of the Kremlin’s assurances that everything is normal, Lavrov’s last public appearance was on October 28, when he met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui. We also know that the Kremlin hasn’t trotted him out to dispel the rumors. That is most definitely not usual behavior for Lavrov and the Kremlin. 

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