Analysis Reveals Insufficient Tariff Revenue to Support Trump Rebate Checks

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An analysis released on Monday reveals that President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff rebate checks could potentially cost twice as much as the revenue generated by his import taxes. This finding raises questions about the financial feasibility of the initiative.

President Trump has suggested issuing checks of “at least $2,000” to every American falling below a specific income level. The plan is to fund these payments with the money collected from U.S. importers under Trump’s tariff policies.

However, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), these proposed rebate checks could end up costing significantly more than the income expected from the tariffs. The committee’s analysis points to a financial shortfall if the plan proceeds as suggested.

The nonpartisan CRFB estimates that the cost of these rebate checks could soar to $600 billion, assuming the administration adopts the same eligibility criteria used during the COVID-19 stimulus payments. This projection further underscores the potential budgetary impact of the proposal.

U.S. tariffs are only projected to generate $300 billion in federal revenue by the end of the year and are responsible for just $100 billion in federal funds so far, according to the CRFB.

“With our national debt quickly approaching an all-time high and annual budget deficits approaching $2 trillion per year, it is imperative that policymakers focus on actually reducing deficits and putting debt on a downward path,” the CRFB wrote.

“Additional tariff revenue should be used to reduce deficits as several administration figures have stated is the intention instead of passing that revenue onto taxpayers in the form of cash dividends.”

Trump claimed Monday that the U.S. would be “lowering our debt” with tariff revenue left over from rebate checks. He added that the media should include “trillions of dollars” in intended investments from major companies when considering the federal revenue created by his tariffs.

The president and Republicans are facing growing backlash over the state of the economy, and took major losses in elections last week, driven largely by concerns about inflation. Despite toppling the Biden administration in 2024 with a promise to bring prices down, Trump is facing similar pressures to the ones that brought down his predecessor.

While Trump has claimed to have defeated inflation, annual price growth ran 3 percent in September, the same as it did when Trump took office in January. The prices of some goods, such as eggs and gasoline, have fallen under Trump, but many more have risen, thanks in part to the president’s tariffs.

Consumer sentiment also plunged in November to near-record lows amid the toll of the federal government shutdown.

Despite initially dismissing concerns over affordability as “a con,” Trump has announced several steps meant to show his commitment to tackling high prices, including the potential rebate checks.

The president said Friday he directed the Justice Department to investigate the meatpacking industry for potential antitrust violations and “driving up the price of Beef,” which has increased by 15 percent over the past year.