DAN BIGGAR: Why England WILL beat the All Blacks (and how I think they'll do it), my encounter with Thierry Henry and why South Africa are in a league of their own right now
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The image of Damian McKenzie, bloodied and bandaged at the conclusion of Saturday night’s match at Murrayfield, perfectly encapsulated the relentless spirit of New Zealand’s rugby team. Despite the challenges, the All Blacks continue to demonstrate their prowess on the field.

Even when the odds are against them, as witnessed in Edinburgh, they refuse to back down. However, the once formidable aura of invincibility surrounding them seems to have diminished. It doesn’t carry the same weight as it once did.

This weekend, I am confident that England will outperform New Zealand.

My confidence stems more from the impressive development of Steve Borthwick’s squad than from any shortcomings of their opponents.

England remains undefeated in their last nine Test matches, having secured wins against Australia and Fiji this autumn. They have climbed to fourth place in World Rugby’s rankings. Their current streak reflects a team brimming with confidence. The team dynamic is excellent, bolstered by world-class players with substantial experience, such as Maro Itoje and Jamie George.

They have beaten New Zealand in the past, in the World Cup semi-final in 2019, so know what it takes. But they are also balanced by a new generation coming through – guys like Henry Pollock, who have no fear.

In captain Maro Itoje, England have a world-class player with a huge amount of experience - including of beating New Zealand

In captain Maro Itoje, England have a world-class player with a huge amount of experience – including of beating New Zealand

But in young guns like Henry Pollock (centre), they also have a talented new generation unburdened by fear

But in young guns like Henry Pollock (centre), they also have a talented new generation unburdened by fear 

New Zealand are still a fantastic team - and the image of a bandaged, bloodied Damian McKenzie at full-time at Murrayfield on Saturday night summed up their never-say-die spirit

New Zealand are still a fantastic team – and the image of a bandaged, bloodied Damian McKenzie at full-time at Murrayfield on Saturday night summed up their never-say-die spirit

The likes of Pollock don’t have past baggage of losing to big teams. That can be really helpful.

England also have extraordinary strength in depth. As coach, Borthwick knows if he loses one man, there is another to replace him. That’s a huge luxury. Even in my best years with Wales, that’s something we didn’t have.

Our depth wasn’t there, even if we did have brilliant players.

I’m willing to nail my colours to the England mast this weekend for a number of reasons.

I really, really like the progression they’ve shown as a team. They’re on an upward curve. It seems they’ve made big strides mentally. England have always had quality players. But last year, they couldn’t win tight matches. 

I was interested to read comments from George that England have used a team psychologist to help give them mental clarity in big moments. Make no mistake, that is a highly significant step. And it seems clear, from the outside at least, that it has worked. In their two games so far this month, England have come under pressure, but their composure and the impact of their bench has seen them over the line.

Clearly, New Zealand will be another big step up. If I look at the All Blacks this autumn, they’ve shown some serious bottle to beat Ireland and Scotland. They’ve had a lot of travel with the Rugby Championship and by playing Ireland in Chicago, so I do wonder if that will catch up with them this weekend.

Against Ireland and Scotland, New Zealand have made lots of uncharacteristic errors.

Steve Borthwick has gone back to George Ford (pictured) at No 10 this weekend based on how well he carried out the game plan to beat Australia

Steve Borthwick has gone back to George Ford (pictured) at No 10 this weekend based on how well he carried out the game plan to beat Australia

New Zealand are always intimidating opposition - as Scotland would attest after their 25-17 defeat on the weekend

New Zealand are always intimidating opposition – as Scotland would attest after their 25-17 defeat on the weekend

They’ve been put under serious pressure, which is something you don’t normally see. In Edinburgh, they had three yellow cards. Scotland couldn’t make the most of them. But if New Zealand are as sloppy again, I think England will punish them.

Borthwick has gone back to George Ford at No 10 this weekend based purely on how well he carried out the game plan to beat Australia. England are very, very well coached.

A key thing for England will be to stop New Zealand playing to width. McKenzie has been hugely instrumental in appearing off the bench in both autumn matches so far.

He’s had a brilliant impact, helping Beauden Barrett as a second playmaker and kicker. I wonder if McKenzie will start against England because New Zealand’s best moments in the past two weeks have come with him on the pitch.

With Jordie Barrett injured, Scott Robertson’s side are playing slightly differently. They are really, really good at sucking teams in defensively to get them narrow before then unleashing the ball out wide to the likes of Will Jordan and Leicester Fainga’anuku, a guy I played with at Toulon.

McKenzie’s ball playing ability alongside that of Beauden Barrett is key. To stop that, England need to put pressure on at the ruck. They need to stop New Zealand getting quick ball and bring immense line speed in defence. 

One of England’s real strengths is their back-row, so they have plenty of players who can compete for the ball. Defending against New Zealand in the wide channels is so difficult. They play with such speed. Everything happens so quickly.

The No 13 position is key to this. The best defender I ever played with in that position was Jonathan Davies.

The No 13 position will be key to England's success, or otherwise, on Saturday - the best defender I ever played with in that position was Jonathan Davies

The No 13 position will be key to England’s success, or otherwise, on Saturday – the best defender I ever played with in that position was Jonathan Davies

Ollie Lawrence (left) is continuing in the vital No 13 role against the All Blacks

Ollie Lawrence (left) is continuing in the vital No 13 role against the All Blacks

He excelled there for Wales but was on another level against New Zealand on the 2017 Lions tour. Jon was deservedly Lions player of the series on that trip. There has been a lot of debate about England’s back-line.

It’s the right call for me to go with Ollie Lawrence at outside centre alongside Fraser Dingwall. But to lose lock Ollie Chessum and wing / centre Tommy Freeman to injury is undoubtedly a big blow. They would have been certain starters if fit.

To beat New Zealand, England will have to be close to perfect. They are more than capable of that, but have a greater chance of being so with their best players in their best and most common positions.

ALL BLACK McKENZIE WINS MY REMY MARTIN MOMENT OF EXCELLENCE AWARD

I have teamed up with Rémy Martin VSOP Cognac to highlight Moments of Excellence on and off the pitch from this month’s Quilter Nations Series. 

There was only ever going to be one winner from last weekend once I’d watched the Scotland-New Zealand match – Damian McKenzie’s 50:22 kick. 

The All Blacks back had an amazing 35 minutes on the field after coming on as a replacement. At the hour mark, Scotland had come roaring back to tie the game at 17-17. They had all the momentum and New Zealand were in real trouble. They showed real signs of panic, like a boxer on the ropes after taking a series of heavy blows. 

But McKenzie got them out of trouble with three huge moments. The first was the best and most significant. His 50:22 was extraordinary and gave his team the position from which he then scored an incredible try. How McKenzie contorted his body to finish in the corner almost defied the laws of physics! After that, he then nailed a monster, match-winning penalty. But the try and penalty wouldn’t have happened without the earlier kick.

In Test rugby, there is a lot of talk about ‘clutch’ moments – when big players step up and deliver for their team when it matters most. That’s exactly what McKenzie did.

WHY THE BOKS ARE THE NEW ALL BLACKS 

I was in Paris on Saturday night for France against South Africa and there were two highlights. The first was the quality of the match. But not far behind was meeting Thierry Henry! I couldn’t wait to tell Henry about the fact I was playing in a charity football match in Toulon on Monday night which was attended by Zinedine Zidane! 

I had a chat with Zidane in the tunnel. He didn’t play, but French legends Fabien Barthez, Bixente Lizarazu and David Ginola all did. So too did former West Ham man Dimitri Payet. The team I was in lost 6-4. Lewis Ludlam, a former team-mate of mine with Northampton and Toulon, scored twice but missed a penalty which we had a good laugh about.

Like the rest of France, Henry went home disappointed on Saturday. The Springboks were too good. To me, they are the new All Blacks, and I mean that in a respectful way. Like the New Zealand teams of 2011 and 2015, they are almost invincible. They just expect to win. 

I don’t think any team other than South Africa could have won at the Stade de France. They were hit with a red card at the end of the first half and still ended with a comfortable success.

Rassie Erasmus and his team are streets ahead of the rest in international rugby right now.

South Africa have incredible strength in depth and can win a game playing in a variety of different ways.

Erasmus is an unbelievable coach. When Lood de Jager was sent off, he responded by taking off Siya Kolisi to bring on a new lock. Kolisi is not only South Africa’s iconic captain, but he was winning his 100th cap too!

With Newcastle legend David Ginola on Monday night - maybe my old team-mate Lewis Ludlam could go to him for some penalty tips!

With Newcastle legend David Ginola on Monday night – maybe my old team-mate Lewis Ludlam could go to him for some penalty tips!

Springbok legend Siya Kolisi was taken off by Rassie Erasmus against France, cutting short his 100th appearance for his country

Springbok legend Siya Kolisi was taken off by Rassie Erasmus against France, cutting short his 100th appearance for his country

So, to take him off was a huge, huge call. I don’t think any other coach or team would have substituted Kolisi in such a situation. But that’s exactly what happened. It worked like a dream. 

You never know what will happen at a World Cup, but it will take some team to stop South Africa winning a third straight global showpiece in 2027.

WALES OFFER REASONS TO BE HOPEFUL  

There were positives and negatives from Wales’ first game under Steve Tandy.

They were beaten by a bigger, better and stronger team in Argentina. But they did score four tries which is no mean feat in any international game these days. The Welsh attack looked well drilled at times.

Jac Morgan was ridiculously good. In his current form, I’d say he’d be good enough to play for any of the world’s top sides. His dislocated shoulder is a massive, massive blow.

Jac Morgan will miss the rest of the autumn internationals with a dislocated shoulder, a massive blow for Wales

Jac Morgan will miss the rest of the autumn internationals with a dislocated shoulder, a massive blow for Wales

Morgan is going to miss the rest of the autumn now and possibly the start of the Six Nations. My concern is that he is the one Wales player who can stand toe-to-toe with the most physical players in the international game. It’s an area Wales as a team struggle in. So, without Jac, it’s going to be really, really hard for them.

A big area for improvement for Wales is the aerial game. They really struggled there and I’m sure it will be a big topic in training this week. 

Wales also conceded too many penalties, were ill disciplined, and allowed too many soft entries. But fix these areas and even without Jac, I think they should beat Japan.

Rémy Martin VSOP Cognac – an excellent gift this holiday season. Please Enjoy Responsibly. 

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