Hopes for a festive season reprieve among mortgage holders may be dashed next week, as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to make its decision on interest rates, new research suggests.

A survey conducted by financial comparison site Finder, gathering insights from 35 financial experts, indicates a consensus that the RBA will maintain the cash rate at 3.6 percent this coming Tuesday.

Among those surveyed, 33 experts anticipate no change in the central bank’s policy, though two believe an increase is warranted.

Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, advises mortgage holders not to anticipate any immediate relief.

“While a hold is preferable to an end-of-year rate hike—which some analysts had predicted—it avoids adding further strain to already tight household budgets,” he noted.

“With inflation starting to get away from the RBA, the board appears committed to steady rates for now.

“Any festive rate cuts are firmly off the table, and borrowers will need to prepare for a cautious start to 2026 rather than a sudden reprieve.”

The final nail in the coffin for hopes of a cut came last month when data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the country’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.8 per cent in the 12 months to October.

The trimmed mean – the Reserve Bank of Australia’s preferred measure of underlying inflation – also rose, up from 3.2 to 3.3 per cent.

Maintaining interest rates at their current level will also impact pre-Christmas spending, according to Finder.

Research shows one in three mortgage holders would have enjoyed a more indulgent Christmas with a lower cash rate.

From those surveyed, 55 per cent had even been planning how they’d spend extra cash if rates continued to fall by splashing out on travel, home renovations and shopping for clothes and shoes.

The outlook for potential rates cuts next year remains a mixed picture.

Half of the 28 experts surveyed believe Australia has hit the bottom of the easing cycle, while the other half say there’s still room for rates to fall.

Many highlighted one lingering factor: the stubborn level of inflation will loom large over the RBA’s cash rate strategy over next year.

More than a third of experts say October’s inflation data has “definitely” raised the likelihood of a rate hike within the next six months, while 34 per cent believe it will have little impact.