As the holiday season approached, Senate negotiators departed Washington without reaching a consensus on the pressing issue of enhanced health care subsidies that are soon set to expire. This unresolved matter looms large as lawmakers transition into campaign mode with the dawn of the new year.

For months, the Senate has been embroiled in a contentious battle over the future of the expiring Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. These subsidies have been at the heart of a historic government shutdown, triggering numerous votes and extensive negotiations in recent weeks.

Despite the looming December 31 deadline, a bipartisan group of lawmakers is striving to rekindle hopes for a deal in the coming month. However, they face significant challenges, including the often volatile nature of health care debates and the impending midterm elections.

“Since the passage of ObamaCare, discussing health care has always been a heavy lift,” remarked Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.). “Everyone acknowledges the issues, and occasionally, my Democratic colleagues admit, ‘OK, yeah, that’s a problem.’ But voting on it has been more difficult, so whatever adjustments we attempt, it’s bound to be challenging.”

On December 11, the Senate held votes on two competing health care proposals, both of which failed. Notably, four Republican senators broke ranks to support a Democratic bill aimed at extending the subsidies for three years. In the aftermath, senators from both parties have been working to salvage a path forward and broker a deal.

A group of nearly two dozen members occupying various political lanes across each party convened early last week with an eye toward unveiling a possible deal next month, with some even indicating hopes that a framework agreement could come by the end of the holiday work period. 

Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) were among the organizers of the meeting. Their bill calling for a two-year extension of the subsidies paired with conservative-leaning reforms served as a basis for the discussion.

On Wednesday, a group of House GOP centrists who bucked their leadership by signing onto a Democratic effort to force a vote on extending the subsidies also met with a group of senators to try to chart a path to a deal that could pass in both chambers.

Democrats in the Senate have also shied away from tying the health care battle to the looming government funding deadline at the end of January, giving talks a boost.  

However, the Senate adjourned without a health care framework.

Democrats present for the first bipartisan meeting last week said that they were initially encouraged by the discussion but indicated that complications made striking a deal increasingly problematic.

“There was a simple concept on the table when we walked in. It was within the range of reason, but then it got more complicated. … The complicators, conceptually, might be OK [or] might not,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said, labeling the meeting a “productive discussion.” 

Attendees said that they expect future meetings, but whether they continue to push the ball up the field — and keep talking during the two-week holiday break — remains an open question. 

Both sides also have political considerations that could scuttle discussions at any time. 

Numerous Republicans have signaled they have little to no appetite to vote on any type of extension of the enhanced subsidies, no matter the reforms that could make the package more palatable. 

They have also indicated that language concerning the Hyde Amendment, which bars federal funds from going toward abortion in any health care package, remains a major sticking point. 

Democrats are also quick to note that Republicans have continuously opposed the ACA. The minority party has indicated they plan to pin the blame on the GOP for the premium hike that millions of Americans are set to experience in the lead-up to the midterms.

“I know that there are a lot of voices on the Democrat side that are saying, ‘We gave it a shot, now let’s move into the political season,’” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). “Do I think that there’s enough Democrats who genuinely want to avoid the problem that we know [is] going to occur?”

“But I’m guessing some of their political leaders … would prefer to have the issue and not the outcome,” Tillis said.

There are other considerations that could shake up negotiations. Chief among them is that four Republicans signed on to a Democratic discharge petition that tees up a vote on a plan that would extend the subsidies for three years. 

While the Senate already voted on a similar bill as part of their health care exercise earlier in the month, some Democrats believe this could give negotiations a shot in the arm when they return. 

“If the House sends something over, that puts pressure on us to do something,” Kaine said. “It’s completely different when the number of people on the [GOP] side who said to me, ‘Why would we do something if the House is just going to kill it anyway?’” 

“Well, OK — now we know that it’s not DOA in the House. When they send a bill over, that means it’s not DOA,” he said.

Kaine added that he expects members to encounter constituents back home who are paying exorbitant premiums compared with 2025. 

That, however, doesn’t mean lawmakers are optimistic that something could still get done — including at the leadership level. 

“There’s a lot of things that have to come together,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.). “I’m not saying it’s likely, and I’m not saying it’s impossible.”