Kosovo's Snap Election: What's at Stake Amidst Uncertain Outcomes?

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Before the first vote is even cast in Kosovo’s snap election on Sunday, experts predict it is unlikely to end the political crisis that has been gripping Europe’s youngest country for almost a year.

The Balkan nation has been politically deadlocked since an inconclusive vote in February, which Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s Vetëvendosje (VV) party won but without enough seats to form a government.

After months of wrangling in a stalled parliament, the caretaker prime minister is going back to the electorate in a vote that analysts say will change very little.

“I think that the December 28 elections will not bring any clarity,” economist Mehmet Gjata said as he predicted Kurti’s party would come out on top again.

Political analyst Fatime Hajdari has stated that there is a “high probability” that the Vetëvendosje (VV) party will garner the most votes in the upcoming elections, though she notes that many other aspects remain uncertain.

Albin Kurti’s political strategy, which combines nationalism with a reform-driven agenda, resonates with the people of Kosovo. This popularity comes in a nation where its independence is still a point of contention with Serbia, even over twenty years after the conflict for independence concluded.

While experts aren’t betting on a conclusive end to the deadlock, if anyone can secure a majority, it’s likely to be Kurti.

His party swept to power in 2021 in the largest electoral victory since the country’s independence from Serbia in 2008, taking over 50 per cent of the vote.

From a student radical to a political prisoner — a past that has seen him dubbed Kosovo’s Che Guevara — Kurti’s long path to the prime ministership has made him one of the most recognisable and influential politicians in Kosovo.

Since 2021, Albin Kurti has held the position of prime minister of Kosovo. Image Source: Getty / Anadolu

Prime minister of Kosovo flanked by men in military garb

Nonetheless, commentator Gjata suggests that the political landscape and public sentiment may have shifted since Kurti’s previous term in office.

However, Gjata says things may have changed since Kurti’s last term.

“I’m afraid that the current political crisis will repeat itself, because VV will not get more than 50 per cent of the votes,” the economist said. “We will have no winner again.”

The largest opposition parties have refused to join a Kurti coalition, all but assuring a fragmented parliament.

The only realistic challenge to VV would be “cooperation” between the three major opposition parties, former foreign minister and opposition candidate Enver Hoxhaj said.

“I think that only they can offer stability,” Hoxhaj said.

Kosovo’s other leadership contenders

Bedri Hamza

Bedri Hamza, a former central bank governor and newly elected president of the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), is seen as Kurti’s strongest challenger.

Born out of a guerrilla movement during the war against rule from Belgrade, the PDK dominated Kosovo’s political scene for years, riding the wave of wartime popularity.

However, its influence gradually waned as the country moved beyond the conflict.

A line of officials and political figures stand at attention during a ceremony or event in a crowded indoor arena, with spectators and flags visible in the background.

The mayor of South Mitrovica, Bedri Hamza (fourth from the right), is seen as Albin Kurti’s strongest challenger. Source: Getty / Pierre Crom

The party has since reinvented itself with figures like Hamza, who blends national values with liberal economic policies championing free markets, economic growth, a stronger private sector and social protection.

Lumir Abdixhiku

Lumir Abdixhiku is the youngest candidate for prime minister but leads the country’s oldest political party, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK).

The 42-year-old economist was an academic focusing on tax evasion in transition economies before entering politics and serving as Kosovo’s infrastructure minister.

Abdixhiku also spent several years as a newspaper columnist, penning the well-known “Letters from Limbo” column in the daily Koha Ditore.

A man in a dark suit and blue patterned tie speaks behind a row of news microphones during an outdoor press conference.

Lumir Abdixhiku has declared that the LDK would offer “a dignified and European government” if it wins the upcoming elections. Source: Getty / Erkin Keci/Anadolu

He became LDK leader in 2021, just a month after the party suffered a crushing parliamentary defeat. Abdixhiku pledged reform and delivered, replacing much of its leadership with younger activists.

Now the third-largest party in parliament, the LDK could play kingmaker in these elections, as both left and right seek its support for a coalition.

Crisis has caused ‘colossal’ economic damage

Without a parliament, key international agreements have not been ratified, putting hundreds of millions of euros in assistance funds at risk.

Two national polls and a local election have cost one of Europe’s poorest nations at least 30 million euros ($52.7 million) this year.

Over a dozen government institutions and agencies have also been left leaderless, as the mandates of their managers expired without new ones being appointed.

Gjata said “colossal damage” had been done to the economy by divided lawmakers over the past months.

A man in a suit and light blue tie speaks into a cluster of microphones held by journalists during a media briefing in a crowded indoor setting.

Former foreign minister and opposition candidate Enver Hoxhaj has said the only realistic challenge to Vetëvendosje would be “cooperation” between the three major opposition parties. Source: Getty / Erkin Keci/Anadolu Agency

“They have put Kosovo in a state of anarchy,” he said.

While lawmakers bickered, the cost of the crisis would be felt by the Balkan nation’s citizens, Hajdari warned.

“That is precisely why Kosovo needs a stable and functional government that would focus on development and welfare.”