A wave of changes to the tax code under the One Big Beautiful Bill has led Trump administration officials to forecast unprecedented tax refunds for Americans in 2026.

In a memo released in early December, Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO), Chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, highlighted an analysis from financial services firm Piper Sandler, predicting a “record-breaking tax refund season” in 2026.

“Due to modifications in the Big Beautiful Bill, most taxpayers can anticipate a larger refund in 2025. However, the exact amount will vary based on individual tax circumstances,” explained Adam Brewer, a tax attorney with AB Tax Law, in an interview with Nexstar.

While several changes are slated for 2026, impacting tax returns in the subsequent year, significant adjustments for 2025 include an increased standard deduction, a higher limit on state and local tax (SALT) deductions, an extra $6,000 deduction for seniors, and no taxes on tips, overtime, or car loan interest, among other benefits.

“The administration and Congress have essentially chosen beneficiaries and those who lose out, resulting in unequal taxation of income,” Brewer added. “For instance, if your earnings heavily rely on overtime or tips, you might pay significantly less in income tax compared to a salaried colleague, despite having similar earnings.”

Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent echoed Smith in a recent interview with a local Philadelphia NBC station, saying that Americans are set to receive “very large refunds.”

“The bill was passed in July. Working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter,” Bessent said. “I think we’re going to see $100 [billion]-$150 billion of refunds, which could be between $1,000 and $2,000 per household.” 

Bessent added that once withholding levels adjust, they’ll see a bump in take-home pay.

To be clear, a larger refund doesn’t mean taxpayers are increasing their income. Rather, the refund money was just over-withheld during the year, and is being returned to the taxpayer.

Still, not all American taxpayers are projected to benefit from the Trump administration’s signature bill.

According to multiple analyses by nonpartisan, independent think tanks, the bill overwhelmingly favors some of the highest earners and businesses in the country.

A Congressional Budget Office analysis found that those in the top 10 percent would see an additional $12,000, while those in the poorest 10% would lose $1,600 annually, while also cutting Medicaid and food assistance.

“What I am telling my clients is that if they receive a larger refund than prior years then it will be a pleasant surprise, but don’t spend in anticipation of a large refund just yet,” Brewer said.