As the festive season winds down, Aston Villa finds itself surprisingly entangled in the title chase, a scenario few could have predicted just a few months ago.

At the beginning of the season, Villa’s prospects looked bleak. They managed to score a solitary goal and gathered only three points over their first five matches. Their performance was anything but title-worthy.

However, the team quickly turned their fortunes around. In the subsequent 13 matches, they secured 12 victories, suffering just a single defeat against the reigning champions at Anfield. Morgan Rogers has emerged as a standout performer, significantly contributing to Aston Villa’s remarkable wins over powerhouses like Manchester City, Arsenal, and Chelsea. With such a record, they are genuine contenders for the championship come May.

Last January, Aston Villa made a strategic acquisition by bringing in Rogers for a mere £8 million. Despite this shrewd move, the club did not bolster their squad further, a decision that might have cost them a shot at their first title since 1981.

As the new transfer window opens, the pressing questions are clear: How will Aston Villa approach this opportunity? Will they provide Unai Emery with the necessary reinforcements to outpace their formidable rivals? And what does the future hold for Harvey Elliott in terms of his playing career? Villa expert Tom Collomosse delves into these pressing issues, offering insights on what fans can expect this January.

Aston Villa are bang in the title race after winning 12 of their last 13 league games, with Morgan Rogers emerging as a player of the season candidate

But Villa were in this position two years ago and fell away slightly in the second half, finishing fourth after only adding Rogers that January

1. What do Villa need to do in January?

Keep calm! In recent transfer windows, Villa’s approach has been chaotic, with Emery appearing increasingly on edge as they switch from target to target, around and back again.

Last January the impulsive approach worked but the difficulties last summer overshadowed the start of the season.

Yet new transfer chief Roberto Olabe is much more of a level-headed character than predecessor Monchi and should be able to handle Emery’s expectations better.

Villa could desperately do with a centre forward in a bit of form – Ollie Watkins’ double off the bench at Chelsea was hugely impressive, but was an anomaly in his recent run.

Emery would also like a wide attacker who can play on either flank, which is hardly a ringing endorsement of Jadon Sancho or Evann Guessand.

The sense is that Villa may agree to swap deals or loan swaps, as domestic and European spending rules have reduced their room for manoeuvre.

Villa could desperately do with a centre forward in a bit of form – Ollie Watkins’ double off the bench at Chelsea was hugely impressive, but was an anomaly in his recent run

Emery would also like a wide attacker who can play on either flank, which is hardly a ringing endorsement of of the likes of Evann Guessand

2. Do they have money to spend?

Not really. Villa remain in an extremely tight spot with Premier League and UEFA financial regulations and it is highly unlikely they can bring in players without first balancing the books.

Roma would like to cancel Leon Bailey’s loan deal early and if Villa could do a permanent sale elsewhere, that would release funds.

Keep an eye on academy products like Lamare Bogarde, too. Emery likes and rates the Dutch utility player but selling him would represent pure profit for Villa and give them a better chance of investing.

Otherwise, loans may be the order of the day – as long as they can reach an agreement with Liverpool to end Harvey Elliott’s stint at Villa Park.

I’d expect them to be open to doing the same with Sancho, though the England international is also unwanted by Manchester United.

Roma would like to cancel Leon Bailey’s loan deal early and if Villa could do a permanent sale elsewhere, that would release funds

Keep an eye on academy products like Lamare Bogarde, too. Emery likes and rates the Dutch utility player but selling him would represent pure profit for Villa

3. Who are they targeting?

Villa have already agreed a deal for young Brazilian winger Alysson from Gremio, but Emery is unlikely to be satisfied with that as the sole piece of business.

As mentioned, Villa have to be extremely careful this winter. If they are able to move, Emery will want players with top-level experience.

Could they move again for Lucas Paqueta, the West Ham playmaker so admired by Emery? Only if they can be certain of balancing the books at the end of the window.

Villa have already agreed a deal for young Brazilian winger Alysson but Emery is unlikely to be satisfied with that as the sole piece of business

Could they move again for Lucas Paqueta (right), the West Ham playmaker so admired by Emery? Only if they can be certain of balancing the books at the end of the window

4. How have their summer signings fared?

Marco Bizot has performed steadily when stepping in for Emi Martinez and though Guessand looks extremely raw, he has made the odd positive contribution. 

Victor Lindelof has seen little Premier League action but did very well in the 3-2 win at West Ham. As for Sancho and Elliott, it is easy to conclude that these deals were the final straw for the Emery-Monchi relationship.

Sancho is clearly not trusted fully by Emery and for Elliott, the equation is even simpler. Emery simply does not rate the on-loan Liverpool midfielder and it is hard not to feel sympathy for him.

Emery clearly does not fully trust Jadon Sancho, and his loan signing is likely to have been one of the final straws in the manager’s broken relationship with Monchi

5. And who might leave?

We have mentioned Bogarde already. Don’t rule out either Watkins or Donyell Malen departing if Emery thinks he can find a better option elsewhere, and the would-be selling club are willing to do a player trade.

Expect Villa to wave goodbye to Elliott, Sancho is likelier to stay than leave but still this is not certain.

Given Roma do not fancy Bailey at all, Villa may agree to have him back before moving him on again.