Uncertainty Looms: What Makes This Summer's Fire Season So Unpredictable?

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Experts say Australia’s bushfire season is “particularly tricky” to forecast this summer, with competing climate forces pulling weather conditions in opposite directions.

In late November, the National Council for Fire and Emergency Services (AFAC) released its bushfire outlook for the 2025-26 summer.

Despite La Niña remaining in place — typically bringing wetter, cooler conditions across Australia — no part of the country was assessed as having a below-average fire risk.

Instead, parts of western and southern Western Australia, central and northern NSW, and southern and central Victoria were identified as higher risk, while most of the country was assessed as facing normal risk.

Since the outlook was issued, bushfires have devastated parts of WA, NSW and Tasmania, resulting in several deaths and the loss of dozens of homes.

SSWs occur when temperatures high above Antarctica start to rapidly warm and are associated with warmer, drier conditions and an increased bushfire risk across Australia.

They are extremely rare in the Southern Hemisphere, with the only documented events occurring in 2002 and 2019 — both of which preceded devastating bushfire seasons.

The recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event has likely played a role in creating the warm and dry conditions observed across much of southeastern Australia this year, according to Watkins. This has led some areas to experience their hottest spring on record.

A map of Australia showing parts of Victoria, NSW and Western Australia highlighted in red.

In anticipation of the upcoming summer, the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) has issued a bushfire outlook for 2025. The report suggests a heightened fire risk in regions including central New South Wales, southern and central Victoria, and southwestern Western Australia.

Despite these conditions, Australia remains in the grip of a La Niña weather pattern. Experts indicate that this phenomenon may be linked to the recent heavy rains and flash floods affecting northern Queensland.

“The oceans offshore from Australia are getting anomalously warm as well, and the balance between these things is altering the synoptic weather patterns,” McRae said.

“El Niño is not necessarily the big kid on the block anymore, and increasingly, meteorologists and climatologists are having look at the range of these things.

“The extreme heat also causes temperature anomalies that impact fire weather in localized areas,” Watkins explained to SBS News, underscoring the complex interplay of factors influencing the climate.

Communities urged to stay vigilant

AFAC’s executive director of national capability, Sandra Whight, said bushfires could still occur in areas identified as normal risk.

“You are still at risk [if] you live in a bushfire-prone environment, you need to be vigilant and ready and liaising and paying attention to warnings and keeping up to speed with the advice from your local authorities,” she told SBS News.

AFAC’s seasonal outlooks are developed with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and state fire services and combine analysis of bushfire fuels, past rainfall, temperature and climate outlooks.

The BoM’s latest long-range forecast, issued on 18 December, for January to March predicts a roughly equal chance of a wetter or drier three months for most of Australia.

Daytime temperatures are forecast to be above average across most of Australia, while overnight temperatures are very likely to be above average, with an increased chance of unusually warm nights in the northern half of the country.