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Australia’s population growth is anticipated to slow to 1.3 percent over the next year, marking a decline from previous forecasts. This adjustment reflects changes in migration trends as well as fertility rates.
One of the primary reasons for this deceleration is the easing of net overseas migration, which had hit record levels in recent times. This shift is poised to significantly impact various regions, with some areas experiencing more pronounced changes in their population dynamics than others.
According to a recent report, the Centre for Population initially estimated that Australia’s population would reach a staggering 31.65 million by the year 2035. However, current trends suggest that this projection might not be realized as swiftly as once anticipated.
As the nation adapts to these evolving demographic patterns, understanding the underlying factors and their implications becomes crucial for policymakers and communities alike.
The Centre for Population had previously predicted Australia would reach 31.65 million people by 2035. Source: SBS News
It is expected to total 260,000 people in 2025–26, well below the peak of 556,000 recorded in the 12 months to the September quarter of 2023.
Although departures have increased overall since 2023–24, migrants on temporary visas are leaving Australia at lower rates than in the past.
Fertility rates continue long-term decline
Australia’s total fertility rate is projected to fall to 1.42 in 2025–26, remaining well below the “replacement level” of 2.1 children per woman.
Fertility has been below this benchmark for almost 50 years.
Life expectancy on the rise
The collected data show health outcomes have shifted alongside longer life expectancy.
In order, these were: dementia (including Alzheimer’s disease), ischaemic heart disease (reduced or blocked blood and oxygen supply to the heart), chronic lower respiratory diseases, cerebrovascular diseases (conditions that affect blood flow to the brain) and lung cancer.
Median age of Australians to increase
The median age is expected to rise by 1.8 years to 40.2 years by 2035–36, about half the rate of ageing experienced during the 1990s.
Regional populations are generally older than those in capital cities across all states and territories, except for the Northern Territory.
