Activists are expressing grave concerns about the potential death toll in Iran as they struggle to obtain reliable information amid the country’s most extensive internet shutdown to date. The blackout has now persisted for over two weeks, complicating efforts to verify reports on the ground.

Tensions between the United States and Iran are escalating, with an American aircraft carrier group advancing toward the Middle East. President Trump, in remarks to journalists on Thursday evening, compared this military movement to an “armada.”

Experts suggest that this military buildup could provide Trump with the option to launch strikes against Iran. However, despite issuing multiple warnings to Tehran, he has refrained from taking such action. Trump had previously set two red lines that could prompt military intervention: the mass execution of prisoners and the killing of peaceful demonstrators.

The Soufan Center, a think tank based in New York, noted in a Friday analysis that while President Trump seems to have reconsidered his stance—possibly due to pressure from regional leaders and the understanding that airstrikes alone might not destabilize the Iranian regime—military resources continue to be deployed to the area, hinting that military action remains a possibility.

In response to these developments, Iranian judiciary spokesperson Gholamhossein Esmaili refuted claims of a significant number of executions, stating, “This claim is completely false; no such number exists, nor has the judiciary made any such decision,” according to Movahedi.

“This claim is completely false; no such number exists, nor has the judiciary made any such decision,” Movahedi said.

His remarks suggested Iran’s Foreign Ministry, led by Abbas Araghchi, may have offered that figure to Trump. Araghchi has had a direct line to US envoy Steve Witkoff and conducted multiple rounds of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme with him.

“We have a separation of powers, the responsibilities of each institution are clearly defined, and we do not, under any circumstances, take instructions from foreign powers,” Movahedi said.

A White House official disputed Movahedi’s assertion later Friday, and reasserted that planned executions were called off as a result of Trump’s warnings. The official, who was not authorised to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, underscored that Trump was watching the situation in Iran closely and “all options are on the table if the regime executes protesters.”

But the official did not provide any evidence or details backing Trump’s claim.

Iranian judiciary officials have called some of those being held “mohareb” — or “enemies of God.” That charge carries the death penalty. It had been used along with others to carry out mass executions in 1988 that reportedly killed at least 5000 people.

At a UN Human Rights Council special session on Iran held in Geneva Friday, Volker Türk, the UN’s high commissioner for human rights, expressed concern over “contradictory statements from the Iranian authorities about whether those detained in connection with the protests may be executed.”

He said Iran “remains among the top executioner states in the world,” with at least 1500 people reportedly executed last year — a 50 per cent increase over 2024.

Meanwhile, Mohammad Javad Haji Ali Akbari, the Friday prayer leader in Tehran, mocked Trump as a “yellow-faced, yellow-haired and disgraced man” who is “like a dog that only barks.”

“That foolish man has resorted to threatening the nation, especially over what he said about Iran’s leader,” the cleric said in comments aired by Iranian state radio. “If any harm were to occur, all your interests and bases in the region would become clear and precise targets of Iranian forces.”

Iran’s foreign ministry lashed out at a European Parliament resolution adopted Thursday which slammed “repression and mass murders being perpetrated by the Iranian regime against protesters in Iran.” The resolution called for the release of those detained and urged the European Council to designate Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, which was key in putting down the nationwide protests, as a terrorist organisation.

The foreign ministry expressed “its strong revulsion at the insulting assertions” of the resolution. In a statement issued Friday, it stressed that “any illegal or interventionist decision or position concerning the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran and the country’s security defenders will be met with reciprocal action by Iran, and responsibility for the consequences will rest with those who initiate such actions.”

The latest death toll was given by the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which reported that more than 4700 of the dead were demonstrators. It added that more than 27,600 people had been detained.

The group’s figures have been accurate in previous unrest and rely on a network of activists in Iran to verify deaths. That death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest there in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Iran’s government offered its first death toll Wednesday, saying 3,117 people were killed. It added that 2427 of the dead in the demonstrations that began December 28 were civilians and security forces, with the rest being “terrorists.” In the past, Iran’s theocracy has undercounted or not reported fatalities from unrest.

The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the death toll, in part because of authorities cutting access to the internet and blocking international calls into the country.

The American military meanwhile has moved more military assets toward the Mideast, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and associated warships travelling with it from the South China Sea.

A US Navy official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss military movements, said Thursday the Lincoln strike group is in the Indian Ocean.

Trump said aboard Air Force One that the US is moving the ships toward Iran “just in case” he wants to take action.

“We have a massive fleet heading in that direction and maybe we won’t have to use it,” Trump said.

Trump also mentioned the multiple rounds of talks American officials had with Iran over its nuclear programme prior to Israel launching a 12-day war against the Islamic Republic in June, which saw US warplanes bomb Iranian nuclear sites. He threatened Iran with military action that would make earlier US strikes against its uranium enrichment sites “look like peanuts.”

“They should have made a deal before we hit them,” Trump said.

The UK Defence Ministry separately said its joint Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jet squadron with Qatar, 12 Squadron, “deployed to the (Persian) Gulf for defensive purposes noting regional tensions.”