President Donald Trump and the Republican party are banking on the financial boost from tax refunds to counteract the Democrats’ narrative on affordability as they aim to retain control of Congress in the upcoming November midterm elections.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the GOP strategically crafted their ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ to ensure taxpayers would enjoy significantly larger refunds—$100 billion more compared to the previous year.

The initial tax legislation, passed in December 2017 by Trump and his Republican allies, did not allow enough time for Americans to see any impact on their refunds in early 2018.

As a result, in the November elections that year, the Republicans faced a setback as Democrats surged to reclaim the House of Representatives.

To avoid a repeat scenario, Trump advocated for the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ to be enacted by July 4, which was achieved last year.

The bill was deliberately written so that the tax cuts would be retroactive for 2025, with the Treasury Department estimating average refunds $1,000 higher, the Journal said. 

In 2025, the average American tax refund was approximately $3,167.

‘Hell yeah, that was intentional,’ Representative Nick LaLota told the paper. ‘We knew that if we were going to put up a fight, we wanted to get that relief to our constituents right away.’ 

President Donald Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill are hoping that larger tax refunds coming to American households this tax season – thanks to the ‘big, beautiful bill,’ will offset Democrats’ affordability messaging going into the November midterm elections

The ‘Big, Beautiful Bill,’ did extend those tax cuts – criticized by Democrats for helping the rich – and included new deductions for tips, on overtime wages and on car-loan interests. 

Tipped workers will see some taxes coming out of their tips, but with the first $25,000 tax-free. 

Seniors – a powerful voting bloc – will also be eligible for new deductions.

Parents will see the maximum child tax credit go from $2,000 to $2,200.

Even some blue state voters will see additional relief, thanks to Republican holdouts from New York and New Jersey, with the cap on the state and local tax deduction, more commonly referred to as ‘SALT,’ going from $10,000 to $40,000. 

Changing the SALT provision, which was decreased in the 2017 tax bill, will provide a quarter of the tax cuts’ boost, according to the Tax Foundation. 

The Cook Political Report shows that of the 18 House races that are considered toss-ups, there are four seats held by Republicans in New York, California and New Jersey, which rank among the top five most heavily taxed states. 

Democrats were wary that larger tax refunds could truly quell concerns about the economy. 

American households that receive tax refunds are expected to, on average, receive $1,000 – a boost that President Donald Trump and Republicans hope keep the GOP in power on Capitol Hill 

On the 2024 campaign trail, Trump promised to extend the 2017 tax cuts and help out service workers by not taxing tips.

‘It is the sort of short-term fix that someone like Donald Trump absolutely loves,’ Democratic Representative Brendan Boyle told the Journal. 

Boyle pointed to the legislation’s cuts into healthcare spending, an even more potent issue given the GOP-led Congress has refused to extend the COVID-era Obamacare subsidies.

‘That, combined with the overall lack of affordability, will continue to be, by far, the biggest issue in this election, and that’s something they just can’t get away from,’ Boyle added.

Trump has repeatedly pointed to lower gas prices and has pushed that groceries are cheaper, despite the Bureau of Labor Statistics saying that grocery prices have climbed 2.4 percent over the year, ending in December.

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins was mocked earlier this month for saying what Americans could eat for $3 – ‘a piece of chicken, a piece of broccoli, corn tortilla, and one other thing.’ 

However, Republicans may have another trick up their sleeves closer to the election – the long-promised tariff refund checks sent out to American households. 

‘President Trump’s tariffs are raising historic revenue for the federal government, and the Administration remains committed to putting that money to good use for the American people,’ a White House official told the Daily Mail on Tuesday.