BRUSSELS – In a significant development, the European Union seems prepared to impose sanctions on Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard. This decision comes in response to Tehran’s harsh measures against widespread protests across the country. The move signals increased pressure on the Islamic Republic, already on edge due to potential military threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.

The United States has strategically positioned the USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers in the Middle East, a clear indication of its readiness to launch sea-based attacks if necessary. Meanwhile, Iran has not held back, issuing its own threats of a preemptive strike and promising to target key locations throughout the Middle East, including U.S. military bases and Israel.

As tensions escalate, Trump’s decision on whether to deploy military force remains uncertain. However, he has made it clear that any use of force might be in retaliation for the violent suppression of protesters and the possibility of mass executions. Activists report that the protests have already resulted in the deaths of at least 6,373 individuals.

The European Union’s potential sanctions represent a decisive move after prolonged deliberation. These measures are expected to intensify the economic strain on Iran, whose economy is already buckling under existing international sanctions. A telling sign of this economic turmoil is the Iranian rial’s plummet to an unprecedented low of 1.6 million to the U.S. dollar. The economic crisis initially fueled the protests, which eventually evolved into a broader challenge against the ruling theocracy before facing severe repression.

As the EU appears set to sanction the Revolutionary Guard, the geopolitical landscape is bracing for further developments in this unfolding drama.

The EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, told journalists it was “likely” the sanctions would be put in place.

“This will put them on the same footing with al-Qaida, Hamas, Daesh,” Kallas said, using an Arabic acronym for the Islamic State group. “If you act as a terrorist, you should also be treated as a terrorist.”

Iran had no immediate comment, but it has been criticizing Europe in recent days as it considered the move, which follows the U.S. earlier sanctioning the Guard.

By EU law, sanctions require unanimity across the bloc’s 27 nations. That’s at times hindered Brussels’ ability to flex its economic clout to crack down on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

For Iran, France had objected to listing the Guard as a terrorist organization over fears it would endanger French citizens detained in Iran, as well as diplomatic missions, which provide some of the few communication channels between the Islamic Republic and Europe and its allies. However, the office of President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday signaled Paris backed the decision.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Thursday before the Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels that France supports more sanctions in Iran and the listing “because there can be no impunity for the crimes committed.”

“In Iran, the unbearable repression that has engulfed the peaceful revolt of the Iranian people cannot go unanswered,” he said.

Guard key to crackdown

The Guard was born from Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution as a force meant to protect its Shiite cleric-overseen government and later enshrined in its constitution. It operated parallel to the country’s regular armed forces, growing in prominence and power during a long and ruinous war with Iraq in the 1980s. Though it faced possible disbandment after the war, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei granted it powers to expand into private enterprise, allowing it to thrive.

The Guard’s all-volunteer Basij force likely was key in putting down the demonstrations, starting in earnest from Jan. 8, when authorities cut off the global internet for the nation of 85 million people. Videos that have emerged from Iran via Starlink satellite dishes and other means show men likely belonging to its forces shooting and beating protesters.

Sanctioning the Guard, however, would be complicated. Iranian men once reaching the age of 18 are required to do as much as two years of military service and many find themselves conscripted into the Guard despite their own politics.

Death toll slowly rises

On Wednesday, the U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which has been accurate in multiple rounds of unrest in Iran, said the violence killed at least 6,373 people, with many more feared dead. Its count included at least 5,993 protesters, 214 government-affiliated forces, 113 children and 53 civilians who weren’t demonstrating. More than 42,450 have been arrested, it added.

The group verifies each death and arrest with a network of activists on the ground in Iran. The Associated Press has been unable to independently assess the death toll given that authorities cut off the internet and disrupted calls into the Islamic Republic. That communication cutoff also has slowed the full scale of the crackdown from being revealed.

Iran’s government as of Jan. 21 put the death toll at a far lower 3,117, saying 2,427 were civilians and security forces, and labeled the rest “terrorists.” In the past, Iran’s theocracy has undercounted or not reported fatalities from unrest.

That death toll exceeds that of any other round of protest or unrest in Iran in decades, and recalls the chaos surrounding the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

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Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.