Discussing the potential for snow flurries in the Tampa Bay Area is a rarity, almost unheard of. Yet, this is one of those extraordinary moments—perhaps a once-in-a-generation event. And the likelihood is increasing! Here’s the reason behind it.

A segment of the Polar Vortex is breaking away and moving southward, pushed by unusually warm air and atmospheric blocking in the Arctic, heading towards the Southeastern United States.

This section of the polar vortex will collide with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, creating a rapidly intensifying low-pressure system. This intensification process, known as “bombing out,” will surpass the criteria for a bomb cyclone by 1.5 times. The outcome: a blizzard striking the Carolina Coast.

In Florida, this will usher in an airmass that could be as cold, if not colder, than any we’ve experienced in decades.

Temperatures will Tumble on Saturday as winds gust 40-50 mph, making Gasparilla celebrations Saturday very challenging.

As a result, temperatures will tumble Saturday with wind chills reaching the 30s late in the day. By Sunday, morning lows will range from 35 on the coast to as low as 20 inland. Wind chills will be in the teens and 20s, with some readings in N Florida dipping below 10.

For many — away from the coast — this will be the coldest it has been since 2010. Coastal locations will remain milder due to onshore Gulf flow.

When very cold air travels over “relatively warm” water often times you get clouds and rain to form. This time it will be cold enough for “Gulf Effect Snow”, a distant cousin of Lake Effect Snow. they work the same way.

On Saturday night, a 50 mph wind over the Gulf will allow for enhanced evaporation and thus bands of clouds to form.

Our Hi Res models are now forecsasting bands of snow or mixed snow & rain to move into coastal locations Saturday evening into Sunday morning. They will be scattered, not widespread, but will likely provide some novelty flakes for Florida residents.

We are fairly confident that some parts of the area will see flakes, so we have upped that chance to an 8 in 10 chance on our – not to be taken too seriously – “Flurry Frenzy 2026” meter.

If a band sets up shop long enough, we may even get a dusting or coating of snow in some spots. The timing is 9pm Saturday until 9am Sunday morning.

For Lake (or Gulf) Effect Snow to occur a large temperature difference between the water surface and clouds must be present. The criteria is 25 degrees F. On Saturday night we will far exceed that, with a difference of 45 degrees.

This temperature difference allows for instability and rising air to transport Gulf moisture aloft, cool, and condense that moisture out to form bands of clouds.

So if you are as excited to see flakes as I am, you may need to stay up late at night. If you get a picture or video of the snow please upload it to us at wfla.com/ReportIt

It helps us to report the news and we will likely share it online or use it on the air.