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Meteorologist Angus Hines indicated on Thursday that it wasn’t out of the question for some areas to experience up to 300mm of rain in the coming days, especially if they were hit by multiple waves of intense storms from Friday through the weekend.
By Friday, however, the forecast for such heavy rainfall had been adjusted downward.
In fact, Brisbane saw a modest 30mm of rain over the three-day period, while Coolangatta reported one of the highest rainfall totals, with 167.2mm recorded over 48 hours, ending at 9am on Saturday.
A Bureau of Meteorology representative explained that the coastal trough advanced more rapidly along the southeast coast than initially predicted by weather models.
“Initially, some forecasts suggested the trough would remain near Brisbane throughout Friday and into the weekend. However, it progressed northward towards the Wide Bay Burnett region on Friday, thus sparing Brisbane from the heaviest downpours,” the spokesperson clarified.
“Forecasts and warnings were updated as the risk to parts of south-east Queensland including Brisbane eased.”
The BoM’s forecast predicted totals of 30 to 40 mm across Brisbane on Friday and the possibility of locally intense rainfall totals of between 100 and 200mm.
South-east Queensland councils, SEQ Water, the state disaster centre and other local stakeholders were briefed over the possibility of intense rainfall leading to flash flooding.
Several councils prepared sandbags in anticipation of flooding, but they were not needed.
Other independent weather outlets followed the BoM’s advice and reported forecast modelling showing the threat of intense rainfall which could reach over 300mm.
The owner of popular Facebook page Brisbane Weather apologised to its followers yesterday for getting it wrong.
“I got caught up in the moment, worrying about the potential impact on people – thinking, if 500mm hit, that would be devastating,” the page said in a post.
“In hindsight, I should have stuck with my usual cross-referencing method, and I would have likely nailed the forecast.
“It is what it is – we all learn from these mistakes.”
Higgins Storm Chasing also warned the south-east coast, including Brisbane, was in for an “absolute flogging” on Thursday, but later updated its post to say the forecast was no longer valid.
While the worst of the rain was avoided, parts of the south-east did cop heavy falls.
The coastal trough moved around the Gold Coast from Thursday into Friday, before moving northward and lingering around the Wide Bay Burnett region on Friday afternoon.
The Gold Coast region saw 125mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am on Friday, while Burleigh Waters Alert recorded one of the highest daily rainfall totals at 126mm.
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