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The White House has been informed that the military might be prepared for an offensive as soon as the weekend approaches, following a notable increase in air and naval forces in the Middle East recently, according to sources.
However, one insider noted that President Trump has been ambivalent, privately weighing both the pros and cons of military intervention, while seeking advice from his advisors and allies on the optimal strategy. It’s uncertain whether he will reach a decision by the weekend.
“He’s dedicating a significant amount of time contemplating this,” stated one source.
This week, Iranian and U.S. negotiators exchanged notes for three-and-a-half hours during indirect discussions in Geneva, but left without a definitive outcome. Iran’s leading negotiator mentioned that both parties had settled on a “set of guiding principles,” though a U.S. official indicated that “many details remain to be worked out.”
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt announced today that Iran is expected to share more comprehensive details of its negotiating stance “in the coming weeks.” However, she refrained from confirming whether Trump would delay any military actions during this period.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to travel to Israel on February 28 to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and update him on the Iran talks, a State Department official told CNN.
“I’m not going to set deadlines on behalf of the president of the United States,” Leavitt said.
She added that while “diplomacy is always his first option,” military action remains on the table.
“There’s many reasons and arguments that one could make for a strike against Iran,” she said, adding Trump was relying on counsel from his national security team “first and foremost.”
The opaque statements have fueled increasing fears of military conflict between the two nations – even as officials ostensibly hold out hope for diplomacy.
The USS Gerald Ford – the most advanced carrier group in the US arsenal – could arrive in the region as soon as this weekend, after a flurry of other military buildup.
US Air Force assets based in the UK, including refuelling tankers and fighter jets, are being repositioned closer to the Middle East, according to sources familiar with the movements.
For its part, Iran is fortifying several of its nuclear facilities, using concrete and large amounts of soil to bury key sites amid US military pressure, according to new satellite imagery and analysis from the Institute for Science and International Security.
A number of calendar events could play a role in the timing of an attack. The Winter Olympics – traditionally a moment of global unity – conclude on Sunday; some European officials said they believed no strike would occur before then.
Meanwhile, Ramadan began Wednesday; some officials from US allies in the Middle East – which have lobbied against an attack, fearing regional destabilisation – said an attack during the Muslim holy month would convey American disrespect.
And Trump is delivering his annual State of the Union address on Tuesday; aides have said it was likely to act as a kickoff for Trump’s mid-term year message on domestic issues. It wasn’t clear whether the president was taking any of those events into account as he weighs his options.
Trump, in his statements on Iran over the past weeks, has done little to gain buy-in from the American public or Congress for a large military operation in the country. He has hinted at a desire for regime change, and insisted Iran not obtain a nuclear weapon, but has not said what precisely his objectives would be in ordering an attack.
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