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Democratic Representative Jasmine Crockett of Texas’s 30th District is not only leading the Texas Democratic U.S. Senate primary but is also widening her lead as early voting progresses.
According to a recent statewide poll, conducted from February 2 to February 16 among likely Democratic primary voters, Crockett, a congresswoman from Dallas, is increasing her advantage over state Representative James Talarico. With early voting having commenced on February 17 and continuing until February 27 ahead of the March primary, this momentum is building as votes are already being cast.
A twelve-point lead.
This is not just a slight edge—it’s significant progress.
In late January, polls showed Crockett leading by eight points following a period where the race appeared more competitive. Since then, the trend has been consistently in her favor.
That is not a wobble. That is movement.
Late-January polling had her up by 8 points after a stretch where the race looked tighter. The trajectory since then has been in one direction.
The broader polling average tells the same story. This is not a one-survey spike. It is a widening margin.
Inside Democrat circles, the tone is already shifting. One longtime party strategist posted this week that DSCC sources believe Crockett is “likely winning,” adding that an attack line against her opponent “worked.” Whether that is spin or confidence, it is not the language of a campaign expecting the race to tighten.
As I’ve said since being in DC a few weeks ago, DSCC sources tell me they’re resigned to Crockett likely winning. The Colin Allard attack worked.
Jasmine Crockett leads James Talarico by double digits in Senate Democratic primary, poll finds https://t.co/cdTgNTNoU9
— dan turrentine (@danturrentine) February 25, 2026
On the Republican side, it looks very different. The GOP primary between Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Sen. John Cornyn remains tight, with single-digit spreads and competitive movement depending on the poll. That race is still unsettled, with neither candidate breaking away in a way that signals clear consolidation among Republican voters or a settled direction inside the party.
The Democrat primary is increasingly not.
Primaries usually tighten as voting begins. They do not typically widen. Moving from a single-digit edge to a 12-point margin while ballots are being cast suggests Democrat voters are making a decision, not hesitating.
Crockett has not built her profile by playing it safe. Over the past year, she has leaned into sharp exchanges, viral moments, and snappy soundbites that regularly spill beyond Texas politics. In recent immigration flashpoints, Democrat lawmakers used similar framing, condemning federal enforcement actions before all the details were clear, only for later information to destroy the narrative. That posture has not hurt her in this primary. If anything, it appears to be part of what is consolidating support around her.
New: Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett Officially Launches U.S. Senate Bid
While Republicans are still competing for position, Democrats appear increasingly comfortable with theirs.
Polls are snapshots. They always are.
But widening margins during early voting are not meaningless noise. They suggest consolidation. And consolidation this early is not accidental.
Editor’s Note: President Trump is leading America into the “Golden Age” as Democrats try desperately to stop it.
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