Key Highlights to Follow in This Tuesday’s Election

Morning Report is The Hill’s morning newsletter. Subscribe here.

In today’s edition:

▪ America heads to the polls on primary day

▪ US citizens advised to evacuate from the Middle East

▪ Trump responds to criticism from conservative circles

▪ US citizens urged to leave Middle East

▪ Trump hits back at conservative critics

▪ 2028 contenders react to Iran strikes

Voters are heading to the polls today in the first primaries of the midterm elections, giving the country its first look at how key races may be shaping up for November.

While much of world’s focus is on the Iran strikes and escalating conflict in the Middle East (more on that below), today also marks the biggest day in politics in the U.S. so far this year with potentially major ramifications for the midterms this fall.

The most noteworthy contests Tuesday are the Senate primaries for Texas and North Carolina — two states that Democrats are hoping to flip this year to retake control of the upper chamber. But intraparty battles are also playing out in several key House races that may signal the direction the parties are heading.

And Democrats are hoping to flip a state House district in Arkansas as another potential sign of the party’s momentum heading into the midterms.

Here are four storylines to watch Tuesday:

Can Cornyn show signs of political life?

Four-term Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) is in the fight of his political career as he faces two major primary challengers.

State Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) are battling Cornyn from the right and accusing him of being insufficiently loyal to President Trump.

Cornyn has pushed back hard, touting his conservative credentials and long record in the Senate, and challenging his opponents — especially Paxton, who is a longtime critic of the Texas senator.

The incumbent has gone after several personal controversies surrounding Paxton and argued the attorney general’s nomination would risk flipping the seat to the Democrats. But Cornyn is facing a major uphill battle to win the GOP primary.

He has consistently trailed Paxton in the Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average by a few points, down by just more than 3 points as of Tuesday morning. Even if Paxton finishes ahead on Tuesday night, Cornyn still has a chance.

Texas law requires the winner to receive a majority of the vote to clinch the nomination, and that’s unlikely to happen Tuesday with three prominent candidates. The top two candidates would advance to a runoff in May.

Those candidates are likely to be Paxton and Cornyn, as Hunt has trailed well behind both in the polls. But Cornyn would need to find a way to convince many who are skeptical of him to back his reelection bid in a short period of time.

An endorsement from Trump would certainly boost him, but the president has so far stayed out of the race.

Can Texas Democrats unify?

On the Democratic side, the race between two rising stars — Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico — has been heating up over the past month.

The candidates were largely cordial in a debate in January. But that’s shifted in recent weeks, as tensions have been rising between Crockett and Talarico and among their supporters.

The hostility was first sparked over comments Talarico allegedly made comparing Crockett with former Rep. Colin Allred, the 2024 Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas. Talarico said his comments were mischaracterized, but the incident contributed to an ugly turn for the race.

More attention was drawn to the race after Talarico’s interview with late-night host Stephen Colbert was pulled amid scrutiny over Federal Communications Commission regulations, which Crockett said likely helped her opponent.

The race has been a test of two different approaches, with Crockett having a reputation for being more adversarial to the Trump administration and Republicans, and Talarico seen as more conciliatory. Voters will choose their preferred strategy in the race today.

But just as important will be whether their respective bases can come together to overcome the recent tensions as they try to pull off what would be a major upset win in Texas in November.

Can vulnerable incumbents hang on?

Other than the Senate races, voters will determine their candidates in what have been a few hotly contested House primaries.

The Democrats’ ongoing generational battle is taking place in two House districts — one in Texas and another in North Carolina.

Coming off his special election victory in January, Rep. Christian Menefee (Texas) is facing longtime Rep. Al Green (Texas) for the Democratic nomination in a newly redrawn district created during Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting process. Menefee is one of the youngest members of the House at 37 years old, while Green has served since 2005 and is 78.

Meanwhile, Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) is facing a rematch from Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam for her House seat. Foushee is 69 years old, while Allam is 32. The primary will also be a test of the party’s ideological wings between the progressive Allam and more moderate Foushee.

Another intraparty battle is taking place between two relatively younger candidates, as Allred is trying to reclaim a seat in the House after spending a term out of Congress. To do that, he’s facing Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas) in another race that’s partially the result of Republican redistricting.

Ideological battles are also taking place on the other side of the aisle, as Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) is trying to fend off a primary challenge from state Rep. Steve Toth (R). Crenshaw has defeated similar challenges before and has backing from various conservative figures and groups, but he’s the only Texas House Republican seeking reelection this year without Trump’s endorsement.

Toth, running to Crenshaw’s right, also received a key endorsement last week when Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) declared support for his candidacy.

And observers will be watching to see if Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) can overcome a late scandal involving allegations of an affair with a former staffer as he faces a challenge from YouTuber Brandon Herrera, a gun rights advocate.

Will Democrats show more signs of momentum?

Democrats’ eyes are also on netting a lower-profile victory Tuesday as they try to win a special election for a vacant state House seat in Arkansas.

Former state Rep. Carlton Wing (R) narrowly won in Arkansas House District 70 in 2024 but stepped down from his position in September to become the head of Arkansas PBS. Democrat Alex Holladay is facing Republican Bryan Renshaw to potentially replace Wing.

As Wing only won by 2 points during the last election, the seat is a clear pickup opportunity for Democrats, who have been consistently outperforming their results from 2024. Republicans dominate control of the Arkansas Legislature, but if Democrats are successful, it could be another sign of party momentum heading into the midterms.

▪ The Hill: Races to watch in Texas, North Carolina.

▪ The Hill: Texas voters to deliver verdict in Senate primaries.

3 Things to Know Today

1. Trump said he will attend this year’s White House Correspondents’ Association dinner after years of boycotting the event. It will be his first time appearing at it the event as president.
2. The Supreme Court has blocked a state judge from redrawing GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis’s (N.Y.) district, keeping it intact ahead of the midterms. The court granted an emergency application from her while litigation in the case proceeds.
3. The House Ethics Committee has launched an investigation into Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), investigating allegations she may have engaged in “improper reimbursement practices” in violation of House rules.

Leading the Day

EVACUATION CALL: The State Department is urging Americans to leave more than a dozen countries in the Middle East immediately as the conflict with Iran begins to spill over into other parts of the region.

Mora Namdar, the assistant secretary of State for consular affairs, said in a post on the social platform X that Americans should leave using available commercial transportation given “serious safety risks.” She said those who need assistance can reach out to the State Department.

The countries are Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen. The Palestinian territories in the West Bank and Gaza are also included.

The fighting with Iran has quickly expanded to other countries as Tehran responds by attacking Israel and U.S. bases in various countries throughout the Middle East. Although the Iranian government said it is only attacking the U.S. and not these countries, the Gulf nations have expressed frustration at getting dragged into the conflict.

The U.S. embassy in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, was struck by multiple drones Monday. The Saudi Defense Ministry said it caused a limited fire and minor damage to the building.

The State Department has accordingly closed its embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the latter of which also faced an aerial attack Sunday.

The Hill’s Laura Kelly reports Iranian-backed militias are carrying out strikes against U.S. forces and partners in the region. The militias include the Shiite group Saraya Awliya al-Dam in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The president hasn’t provided a clear idea of how long the military operation against Iran will take. While he initially said it might only be a few days, Trump said at the White House on Monday that he believes operations could go on for “four to five weeks.”

But he also said the operation could be ahead of schedule or take longer.

“We’re already substantially ahead of our time projections, but whatever the time is, it’s OK. Whatever it takes,” Trump said.

The president told NewsNation’s Kellie Meyer that the U.S. is “getting very close” to accomplishing the administration’s objectives in Iran.

“I know a lot, and I will absolutely know when it’s achieved. It’s getting very close too. We’re doing a lot of damage. We’re setting them back a lot,” he told Meyer.

▪ The Hill: Five questions for Trump amid Iran crisis.

▪ The Hill: The targets hit during Operation Epic Fury.

WAR POWERS VOTE: The Senate is set to vote Tuesday on a war powers resolution led by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) to rein in Trump’s authority over Iran. But it faces tough odds, as only one Republican, Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), has come out in favor of it, while one Democrat, Sen. John Fetterman (Pa.), has declared his opposition to it.

A vote is also expected on a war powers resolution in the House this week.

If the current math holds, both resolutions will fail, but the vote might be tighter than it would otherwise have been before Trump launched the attack, The Hill’s Al Weaver reports.

Still, Trump would be able to veto the resolutions if they get to his desk, and Congress does not have the numbers to overcome any vetoes.

Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth left the door open to placing boots on the ground in Iran, though Hegseth said the U.S. would not get pulled into an “endless” war, referring to the conflict in Iraq.

Vice President Vance also dismissed the idea that Trump would lead the U.S. into a multiyear conflict, telling Fox News’s Jesse Waters that the president wouldn’t go to war without a clearly defined objective.

CONSERVATIVE PUSHBACK: Trump dismissed criticism from some conservative figures of his Iran operations, arguing that he represents the MAGA movement and not them.

“I think that MAGA is Trump — MAGA’s not the other two,” Trump told journalist Rachael Bade on Monday night, referring to Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson. “MAGA wants to see our country thrive and be safe. And MAGA loves what I’m doing — every aspect of it.”

Kelly and Carlson have both expressed opposition to the U.S.’s moves in recent days. Kelly said she has “serious doubts” about what the U.S. is doing, while Carlson called the military campaign “evil.”

Conservative commentator Matt Walsh also criticized the administration for “confused” messaging about its objectives. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt responded with a lengthy X post outlining Trump’s stated goals from his initial statement announcing the strikes.

Early polling data has shown low approval among the American public of the strikes, but Trump has brushed it off.

“I think that the polling is very good, but I don’t care about polling. I have to do the right thing. I have to do the right thing. This should have been done a long time ago,” he told the New York Post in an interview Monday.

VIEW ON ALLIES: Trump also doesn’t seem deterred by multiple U.S. allies breaking with him on the Iran conflict.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Monday he doesn’t support joining air operations against Iran and wouldn’t add to offensive operations unless there’s a “viable thought-through plan.”

Spain said it wouldn’t allow the U.S. to use its bases for operations against Iran, declaring the attacks a violation of international law.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has been one of the allies declaring his support for the operation.

Hegseth slammed U.S. allies that have shown hesitancy to back the campaign, saying they would prefer to “wring their hands and clutch their pearls, hemming and hawing about the use of force.”

The U.S. death toll rose to six military service members Monday. Trump said Sunday he believed additional casualties were likely.

▪ The Hill: Trump gambles on Iran regime change.

▪ The Hill: Lawmakers say Israeli plan to attack Iran dictated Trump’s decision.

▪ The Hill: Oil, gasoline prices jump amid Iran strikes.

LAW FIRMS WIN: The Department of Justice (DOJ) abandoned its defense of executive orders from the president targeting some of the country’s top law firms, handing them a major legal victory.

Court filings show the DOJ gave up its appeals of rulings from federal judges rejecting the executive orders targeting the law firms Perkins Coie, WilmerHale, Jenner & Block and Susman Godfrey. The orders sought to undermine the firms’ business in limiting their government contracts and their employees’ security clearances and access to government buildings.

The firms had argued they were the targets of political retribution over their ties to opponents of Trump.

ADVISORY LIFTED: Washington, D.C., officials have lifted a recreational advisory for the Potomac River, signaling cleanup efforts following a sewage leak have turned a corner.

D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser (D) announced the D.C. Department of Health made the decision Monday, as consistent testing has shown bacteria levels in the water are within safe ranges for recreation.

The sewage overflow began in mid-January, leading to more than 240 million gallons of wastewater spilling into the river as of last month. That made it one of the largest wastewater spills in U.S. history.

Drinking water in the region was unaffected, as the spill occurred downstream from where water is taken from. But the spill caught national attention, and Trump approved a request from Bowser just more than a week ago to declare an emergency and send in federal disaster assistance.

Swimming in the Potomac remains allowed but only with a special permit, as is standard for the District, Bowser noted.

▪ The Washington Post: What to know as the advisory is lifted.

When & Where

• The president will participate in executive time at 8 a.m. He will participate in a bilateral meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at 11:15 a.m. and have lunch with him at 11:45 a.m. He will meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright at 2 p.m. He will participate in policy meetings at 3 p.m. and 5 p.m.
• The Senate will meet at 10 a.m.
• The House will convene at noon.

Zoom In

DIVERGING APPROACHES: Democrats rumored to be mulling 2028 presidential bids have all come out against Trump’s strikes against Iran but are using different rationales, showing how they might approach foreign policy as candidates.

The differences, if slight, underscore continued tensions within the party dating back to the Iraq War, The Hill’s Amie Parnes reports.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who arguably has the most foreign policy experience of all the potential candidates, argued Trump didn’t need to go to war and the president should have sought congressional approval before striking. She declared her opposition to the idea of regime change in Iran.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) slammed the U.S.-Israeli attack as executive overreach but also went after the Iranian regime. He declared the “leadership of Iran must go,” though said that doesn’t “justify” Trump’s actions.

Meanwhile, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg criticized a lack of a nuanced strategy in the attack and warned against potential escalation without clear goals. He and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (D) each said domestic issues should be Trump’s priority.

▪ The Washington Post: Ranking the 2028 Democratic contenders.

ZINKE RETIRING: Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) became the latest House member to announce their retirement Monday, adding to the number heading for the exits from Congress.

A former Interior secretary during Trump’s first term, Zinke cited health reasons for not running for reelection, revealing he has undergone multiple surgeries since returning to Congress in 2023. With Zinke’s retirement, the number of incumbent House members not seeking reelection remains on track for a high point in recent election cycles.

Fifty-two House members have announced their retirements or plans to run for another office during this election cycle, tied with the total in 2018 for the highest of any cycle of the past decade, according to Ballotpedia.

DRUNKARD LAWS ON DISPLAY: A battle over historical vagrancy laws for drunkards from the founding era of the country may be critical to whether the Supreme Court strikes a law banning drug users from possessing firearms.

The court heard arguments Monday over a 1968 law declaring anyone who is “an unlawful user of or addicted to any controlled substance” is prohibited from owning a gun. A marijuana user is challenging his criminal prosecution under the Second Amendment.

A majority of the court appeared sympathetic to the defendant, though the specifics of the court’s ruling remain unclear, The Hill’s Zach Schonfeld reports.

During arguments, the justices ran through various hypotheticals concerning controlled substances. Justice Neil Gorsuch raised old guidance from the American Temperance Society and examples of some of the Founding Fathers.

“John Adams took a tankard of hard cider with his breakfast every day. James Madison reportedly drank a pint of whiskey every day. Thomas Jefferson said he wasn’t much a user of alcohol — he only had three or four glasses of wine a night, OK? Are they all habitual drunkards who would be properly disarmed for life under your theory?” he asked the government, which responded they would not.

Several justices also teased the possibility of prosecutions involving other drugs, from Tylenol to hallucinogens.

▪ The Hill: Court rules for parents in transgender disclosure case.

▪ NBC News: China is winner of Supreme Court’s tariff ruling.

Elsewhere

POSSIBLE RELOCATION: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said talks among U.S., Ukrainian and Russian officials scheduled for this week may be moved from Abu Dhabi as a result of the Middle Eastern conflict.

Zelensky told reporters during an online briefing Monday that he doesn’t have additional information but confirmed the meeting is still scheduled.

“For now, because of these hostilities, we cannot confirm that the meeting will take place in Abu Dhabi, but the meeting itself has not been canceled,” he told reporters, according to the Ukrainian newspaper European Pravda.

“The meeting must take place. It is important for us, and we support it. The meeting is important, the results are important, and exchanges are also very important,” he added.

Iran has targeted several U.S. bases throughout the Middle East in retaliation for the U.S.-Israeli attack, including in the United Arab Emirates. Access to airspace remains limited throughout the region.

▪ The Hill: Ali Larijani emerges as key figure in Iran.

▪ The Hill: Who was killed and who’s in charge in Iran.

Opinion

The Closer

And finally … The streaming platforms Paramount+ and HBO Max are expected to merge into a single platform if Paramount Skydance’s planned acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery goes through.

“We do plan to put the two services together, which today gives us a little over 200 million direct-to-consumer subscribers,” the company’s CEO, David Ellison, reportedly said during an investor call Monday.

“We think the combined offering, given the amount of content and what we can do from the tech side, really will put us in a position to be able to compete with the most scaled players,” he added.

The announcement comes after Paramount Skydance won in its bidding war with Netflix for control of Warner Bros. Discovery, as Netflix said it wouldn’t match its competitor’s bid. The acquisition still needs approval from the Department of Justice to go through.