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In a high-stakes contest that epitomized the fierce political climate of Texas, State Representative James Talarico emerged victorious over Representative Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary for the Senate. The race, characterized by its hefty financial expenditure and intense campaigning, concluded with Talarico securing approximately 53.1% of the vote, as reported by DDHQ. Crockett, a fellow Democrat from the Texas House, garnered 45.6%.
Simultaneously, the state’s political landscape remains turbulent as Senator John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, both Republicans, prepare for an impending runoff in May. The contest between these two seasoned politicians is anticipated to escalate in intensity as they vie for their party’s nomination.
The electoral excitement wasn’t confined to Texas. Voters in North Carolina and Arkansas also made their voices heard as they initiated the 2026 midterm cycle. In Texas, the spotlight was on competitive primaries for Senate and state attorney general positions, alongside several contentious House district races. These included a number of challenging matchups within the Democratic Party.
North Carolina, on the other hand, focused on the primaries to replace retiring Senator Thom Tillis. The state also witnessed a fiery clash in a House race pitting an establishment Democrat against a younger, progressive opponent.
As the dust begins to settle from this first round of primary elections, observers are left with several key insights. Among them, the notable win by Talarico over Crockett signals a shift in the Democratic landscape in Texas, setting the stage for future political battles.
Here are six takeaways from the year’s first primary elections:
Talarico win has Democrats dreaming of a big upset in November
Talarico is the projected winner over Crockett in the closely watched Democratic primary for Senate in Texas, according to DDHQ. Talarico, as of Wednesday morning, garnered 53.1 percent of the vote to the House lawmaker’s 45.6 percent.
“Tonight our campaign is shocking the nation. We are still waiting for an official call, but we are confident in the movement we’ve built together,” the state lawmaker said earlier Wednesday morning at a campaign event. “Every, every vote must be counted. Every voice must be heard”
Litigation in Dallas County over extended voting on Tuesday roiled the Democratic contest, raising questions about whether a final tally would emerge on Election Day.
“I won’t be back tonight because I have no idea of when we’re going to get results, and I fully anticipate it won’t be until tomorrow,“ Crockett told her supporters at a campaign event in Dallas.
Contours of fight for Senate majority take shape
The contours of several consequential Senate races in addition to the one in Texas are starting to take shape, as Democrats strive to eliminate the GOP’s majority this November.
In Texas, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) are projected to head into a May 26 runoff. Cornyn, Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas) vied for the GOP nod, but no candidate was able to win more than half the vote outright to avoid a runoff on Tuesday.
Republicans are already bracing for an ugly multi-month brawl, with tens of millions of dollars already spent in the GOP primary thus far.
“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years,” Cornyn told supporters at his watch party, according to CBS Austin.
The picture was less murky in North Carolina, where former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) and former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley were projected to win their respective primaries for Senate early Tuesday. The Tar Heel State is seen as a key pickup opportunity for Democrats given Tillis’s retirment.
Texas Supreme Court throws wrench in Dallas-area race results
The Texas Supreme Court’s decision to temporarily pause a lower court’s ruling allowing an extension of voting hours in Dallas County has not only stirred the Senate Democratic primary, but is also impacting a prominet House contest for the party.
Dallas County has separate polling locations for both political parties, and confusion over this practice sparked calls from Democrats for the country to extend voting hours for Texans seeking to cast their vote at the correct polling location.
A Texas judge allowed voting to be extended two more hours in the county before The Lone Star State’s highest court temporarily halted that decision, asking that any votes cast after 8 p.m. ET be separated from the final tally.
In the district, former Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) is running against his successor, Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas). Allred initially ran for Senate against Cornyn but later dropped out after Crockett entered the race.
Allred’s decision to primary Johnson created an awkward matchup between the former lawmaker and the congresswoman, who succeeded him in 2025.
Allred had close to 46 percent of the vote, with Johnson at close to 34 percent with about 65 percent of the vote cast as of 1:15 a.m. on Wednesday.
Mixed night for incumbents seeking reelection
Tuesday’s races offered a mixed night for incumbents, with some primaries showing several lawmakers either losing their contests or in danger of being ousted.
Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) is projected to lose his GOP primary to Texas state Rep. Steve Toth (R) in the state’s 2nd Congressional District.
Over in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District, Decision Desk HQ projected that Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who’s facing allegations of an affair with a former staffer, and gun rights YouTuber Brandon Herrera were headed toward a runoff. Gonzales has faced calls to resign but has brushed off the calls, calling the allegations “personal smears.”
Gonzales narrowly defeated Herrera last cycle after he was forced into a 2024 runoff.
Meanwhile, the race between Rep. Valerie Foushee (D-N.C.) and progressive Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam has not yet been called, nor has Decision Desk HQ called the primary between Democratic Texas Reps. Christian Menefee and Al Green in the 18th Congressional District.
Menefee and Green could be forced into a runoff if neither gets more than half the vote Tuesday.
Cornyn will also face a tough reelection bid in his runoff election against Paxton, who said Tuesday that “the people of Texas deserve better” than the four-term incumbent.
High Democratic turnout reinforces growing momentum
Democratic turnout surged in Texas and North Carolina, adding to signs of the party’s midterm momentum.
In Texas, early turnout in the Democratic primary outpaced Republicans and exceeded totals from recent cycles, energized by the marquee Senate race.
Roughly 1.4 million voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary during early voting, which ended Friday, according to unofficial data from the Texas secretary of state’s office. Across the aisle, roughly 1.2 million voted early in the GOP election.
In 2018, when Democrats came within just a couple points of flipping another Senate seat, roughly 1.1 million turned out across early and Election Day voting in the party’s primary, compared to 1.5 million in that year’s Republican contest.
Election officals said Tuesday that voters in Harris County broke the record for highest turnout in a primary election, ABC13 reported.
In North Carolina, more voters cast early ballots in Tuesday’s primaries than in either the 2024 presidential primary or the 2022 midterms, according to data compiled by NC Newsline.
Around 297,000 early ballots were cast in the Democratic primary as of Monday, compared to roughly 201,000 in the GOP race, data from the secretary of state’s office shows. Another 216,000 were unaffiliated ballots.
As this week marks the first primaries of the midterm cycle, the early turnout numbers are a good sign for Democrats, who are bullish about cutting into Republicans’ control of Congress this fall.
Republican primary fights rage on in Texas
Primary fights are set to rage on in several closely watched GOP races after results were too close to avoid a runoff.
Cornyn and Paxton will be forced to duke it out in the coming weeks before their May showdown, stretching out a primary brawl that has already broken spending records and divided Texas Republicans.
With roughly 90 percent of the vote in on Tuesday night, Cornyn had single-digit lead over Paxton, but neither candidate was poised to push past the 50 percent support they’d need to win outright.
The runoff is expected to draw more money – and more questions about whether Trump could endorse in the race as both candidates highlight their alignment with the president.
The Lone Star State’s race for attorney general was also headed to a GOP runoff between Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Texas state Sen. Mayes Middleton (R) as they battle to succeed Paxton, who’s leaving his post for the Senate race.
Middleton had a double-digit lead over Roy, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, with 70 percent of the vote reported late Tuesday, but he failed to reach the halfway mark.
Republican runoffs were also projected in Texas’s 9th, 23rd and 35th Congressional Districts.
With 12 weeks to go, the runoffs are set to suck up time and resources for candidates in key races as others rush the runway for the November general election.
Updated March 4 at 7:03 a.m. EST.