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Situated 16 miles off the Iranian coast in the Persian Gulf, Kharg Island could hold the strategic key to significantly impacting Iran’s theocratic regime. This modest piece of land might just possess the potential to bring about monumental change.
However, the implications of such a move extend beyond Iran. China, which currently purchases over 80 percent of Iran’s oil, would also feel the pressure. Disrupting this supply could provoke a reaction from Beijing, given their heavy reliance on Iranian oil.
Despite the island’s strategic importance, simply destroying its infrastructure is not a viable option. Any future government in Iran would likely depend on oil revenues to stabilize the nation, and Kharg Island would remain central to those efforts.
This raises the question: why has there been no move to occupy Kharg Island?
The challenge lies not in the potential disruption of Iran’s crude exports, which could indeed weaken the current regime. The real issue is the island’s proximity to the Iranian mainland, complicating any potential occupation.
“The revenue shortfall would run into the billions monthly. You’d see the currency collapse further, inflation spike, subsidies buckle, and this will add more pressure on the country with no quick way to stop the bleeding.”
Here’s the catch: This would put a serious squeeze on China, as well, as the Middle Kingdom buys, right now, over 80 percent of Iran’s oil output. China, then, may be inclined to get a bit tetchy if we slammed the door on a little more than the same percentage of Iranian oil that China buys.
Still, this is a key logistical position. It may be counter-productive (although easily within our capacity) to just blow everything on the island up. When a new government comes into Iran and starts setting things to rights, as we sure hope happens, they’ll need oil revenue – and this island will still be the key to that.
So, why haven’t we occupied this island yet?
The island’s economic importance could give Trump leverage, said former administration official John Ullyot, who has served in defense roles including at the National Security Council during Trump’s first term.
JP Morgan cautioned in a Monday statement that “a direct strike [on Kharg Island] would immediately halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure.”
Oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have slowed to a trickle since the war started on Feb. 28 — causing wild swings in global trading as Trump attempts to coax ships to traverse the Strait of Hormuz with a new reinsurance program and offers of US military escorts.
The problem isn’t that it would halt Iran’s bulk crude exports. That would weaken the theocracy, and is worth doing. No, the problem is that it’s too close to the Iranian coast.