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According to intelligence assessments, Iran’s newly established government remains stable, with its leadership holding firm despite two weeks of continuous airstrikes by the United States and Israel.
Multiple classified analyses indicate a consistent conclusion: the Iranian regime is not on the brink of collapse and continues to exert control over its populace, as revealed by sources to Reuters.
A recently conducted report, finalized just a few days ago, reinforces these findings, a source confirmed.
Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump declared that the conflict had been “won” and anticipated its conclusion “soon.”
Only hours after his statement, however, six oil tankers suffered attacks by Iranian suicide boats in the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to surge past $100 per barrel.
The intelligence reporting reveals that Iran’s clerical power structure remains intact after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s killing on February 28, the first day of US-Israeli strikes.
A senior Israeli official acknowledged that there is no certainty the war will lead to the government’s collapse.
Three intelligence sources who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity stressed that the situation on the ground was fast moving and could change at any time.
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters alongside White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt as he departs for Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on March 11
Oil tankers burn in the Persian Gulf after being struck by Iranian suicide boats just hours after Trump claimed the US had ‘won’ the war
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.
The ​White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Â
The US and Israel say they have decimated Iran’s senior leadership.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on Iranians to rise up and overthrow their government in the immediate aftermath of the first strikes.
But the Trump administration has since offered a confused picture of its goals, backing away from this regime-change message and instead arguing it seeks to dismantle the regime’s military infrastructure and obliterate its nuclear capacity.
Trump sent oil prices soaring last week when he demanded Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender.’
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt later clarified that this meant ‘Iran will essentially be in a place of unconditional surrender whether they say it themselves or not.’
But the intelligence suggests Iran’s leadership remains steadfast.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of late Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, attends a meeting in Tehran, Iran, March 2
The Assembly ​of Experts, a group of Shiite clerics, earlier this week declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, the new supreme leader.
The new leader on Thursday issued his first statement, vowing to avenge ‘the blood of Iran’s martyrs’ and promising to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.
The narrow strait, through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows, is central to Iran’s strategy to pressuring Trump to cease the war. Â
Mojtaba for all American bases in the region to be immediately closed.
He also said Iran will seek compensation from its enemies or destroy their assets accordingly.
Despite the release of the statement, Mojtaba is said to be in intensive care at the Sina University Hospital in the city’s historic quarter surrounded by security officials, according to a source in Tehran. A section of the hospital has been sealed off to guard Iran’s Supreme Leader.
It is unclear whether Mojtaba was injured in the same air strikes which killed his 86-year-old father.
A source, who does not want to be named out of fear for his life, said the new Supreme Leader is under the care of Mohammad Reza Zafargjani, Iran’s Minister of Health, Treatment and Medical Education and one of the country’s top trauma surgeons.