Experts Weigh In: Implications of Super El Niño’s Record-Setting Pattern for California

El Niño is on the verge of making a return.

Experts predict that this potent climate phenomenon might re-emerge later this year, potentially altering weather patterns significantly across California.

The forming El Niño is expected to influence the 2026 hurricane season, starting June 1, by altering both the frequency and strength of storms, as per the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Forecasters estimate a one-in-three likelihood of experiencing a super El Niño between October and December.

This could lead to scorching heatwaves, severe droughts, and widespread flooding around the globe.

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“The El Niño cometh,” climate scientist Zeke Hausfather wrote on social media as new forecasts rolled in.

If the pattern strengthens, California could see the classic El Niño rollercoaster: soaking winter storms, flooding risks and unusually warm temperatures across much of the state.

Some researchers say the developing system could even become a powerful one. Climate scientist Daniel Swain said recent models increasingly point to a “significant, if not strong” event.

El Niño happens when waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean warm unusually, shifting jet streams and weather patterns across the planet. The cycle — known to scientists as ENSO — swings between warm El Niño phases and cooler La Niña periods.

The current La Niña that helped shape recent weather is now fading, setting the stage for the flip.

For California, that shift matters.

Historically, strong El Niño winters have delivered heavier rains across the southern U.S. and parts of the West Coast, sometimes bringing the kind of storms that can trigger floods and mudslides after dry years.

It could also ripple far beyond the state. El Niño years often rank among the hottest globally, and they can also influence hurricane seasons — typically suppressing storms in the Atlantic while boosting activity in the Pacific.

For now, scientists stress the strength of the event is still uncertain. But with warm water already building beneath the Pacific’s surface, the odds are climbing that the climate heavyweight will soon step back into the ring.