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During a pre-budget address today, Chalmers highlighted new projections from the Treasury. These projections anticipate inflation could climb to over 4 percent if oil prices remain at $100 per barrel. If prices surge to $120, inflation might rise as high as 5.5 percent.
“This makes the possibility of inflation reaching the high fours or even higher this year quite likely,” he stated.
Australia’s GDP might experience a slight dip, decreasing by 0.2 percent by mid-year. However, it could potentially bounce back swiftly, or alternatively, see a more significant drop of 0.6 percent by 2027.
Chalmers noted that prior to the conflict, inflation was already problematic, with productivity growth stagnating for two decades. While the global economy was navigating through challenges, and Australia demonstrated resilience, the international landscape was already fraught with uncertainty.
“Recent events in the Middle East have intensified the need to tackle these three pressing issues,” Chalmers emphasized.
With that in mind, Chalmers concluded that rising global uncertainty demanded “more reform, not less”. 
“It’s a reason to go further, not slower,” he said
He touted his fifth budget, which will be handed down in May, as an “ambitious” one.
It will deliver three key packages on tax, savings and productivity and investment. 
In his speech today, the treasurer confirmed the budget will include major tax reform that will be guided by how the “outdated” system weighs on younger and future generations.
“Any changes would have a substantial focus on our intergenerational responsibilities,” he said.
Chalmers said the reform would also make the tax system simpler and more sustainable and drive business investment but only “if we can afford to”. 
“We’re working on more tax reform in the budget,” he said.
“How much of that we can do in May depends a bit on fiscal considerations, international developments, and also, of course, cabinet deliberations.”
The budget will also rein in government spending and work with the states, territories and the private sector to build productivity and increase investment.
Chalmers said all three packages have been calibrated for the volatile global economy and will help the nation succeed through it.
“It will be an ambitious budget because ours is an ambitious government, and this is an ambitious country,” he said.
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