Iran-Backed Terror Group’s Grab Threatens Shipping Chokepoint

Iran-aligned Houthi fighters took control of Yemen’s strategically vital port city of Mocha on Thursday, then advanced toward areas commanding views of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The move creates a potentially perilous new threat to global commerce as maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply restricted.

The offensive puts the southern entrance to the Red Sea at risk just as Saudi Arabia has turned more heavily to that passage to avoid Hormuz. With pressure now mounting on vital sea lanes on both sides of the Arabian Peninsula, the conflict could trigger fresh disruptions for oil cargoes and commercial shipping moving through one of the world’s most important trade chokepoints.

“Now you have Iran on one side of the Arabian Peninsula controlling Hormuz, and now the Houthis controlling Bab el-Mandeb on the other side of the peninsula,” Hisham Al-Omeisy, senior Yemen advisor at the European Institute of Peace, told News Media. “Which basically is going to drive prices — oil prices, goods and everything else — up exponentially.”

Speaking on background, a senior administration official told News Media: “The United States is focused on protecting our core national security interests — such as ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea — while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges. We are in continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia and the Republic of Yemen Government regarding regional stability.”

Yemeni government sources said Thursday that Houthi forces had seized Mocha and moved as far as the Hanish Islands. Saudi-backed government troops pulled south toward Dhubab, directly across the Bab el-Mandeb from the strategic island of Perim. Securing Dhubab and Perim would be essential for any force seeking tighter control of the strait, Yemeni government sources told Reuters on Sept. 10.

At its narrowest, the Bab el-Mandeb measures roughly 18 miles across. The waterway links the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea, which leads north toward the Suez Canal. It serves as a critical route for Asian-European trade and major energy shipments.

Its strategic role has become even more pronounced amid the Iran conflict.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil and petroleum liquids transiting Bab el-Mandeb averaged 8.1 million barrels a day during the second quarter of 2026, rising from 5.4 million barrels a day in the final quarter of 2025. Over the same period, volumes through Hormuz collapsed from 21.6 million barrels per day to 4.9 million. The EIA said the increase in Bab el-Mandeb traffic was partly driven by Saudi Arabia sending crude through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing exports to bypass Hormuz.

Al-Omeisy said the danger extends beyond the Houthis’ geographical gains. He said retreating government forces left behind military materiel that could strengthen Houthi forces on other fronts.

“People are focused on taking Mocha and those outposts on the Red Sea,” Al-Omeisy said. “But the military side is terrible, particularly the equipment, the munitions, the vehicles, the drones that were at those military camps, which they can now, in turn, use against the government forces elsewhere.”

U.S.

Reuters separately reported Thursday that Iranian arms and direct guidance from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards helped the Houthi advance, citing Yemeni government, Iranian and regional sources. Two Iranian sources told Reuters that Tehran had instructed the Houthis to intensify attacks on Saudi Arabia and promised additional funding, weapons and senior officers. Iran has publicly denied directing Houthi operations.

The seizure comes amid what conflict-monitoring organization ACLED described Sept. 9 as the most serious escalation between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed camp since hostilities resumed in mid-July.

ACLED recorded at least 276 fatalities between Sept. 3 and 7 as clashes spread across al-Dali, al-Bayda, Marib, Shabwa, al-Jawf, al-Hudayda and Taizz, according to an analysis published Sept. 9.

Sherwan Hindreen Ali, ACLED’s Middle East research manager, said fighting along the Red Sea coast had become particularly intense as both sides sought control over territory with direct strategic importance to Bab el-Mandeb.

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“Fighting will remain focused on the fronts of the Red Sea coast in al-Hudaydah and Taizz, where both the Houthis and the Saudi Arabia/IRG have a vested interest in claiming the whole territory to deprive the other side of effective control of the strait of Bab el-Mandab,” Ali said in an analysis.

Saudi Arabia itself has also become more deeply involved.

Ali said Saudi forces launched at least 15 strikes against the Houthis between Sept. 3 and 7, mostly around Taizz, marking the highest number of Saudi strikes since Riyadh resumed military engagement against the Houthis in July.

The Houthis responded Sept. 8 with what Ali described as their largest wave of direct attacks on Saudi territory since March 2022, launching dozens of drones and ballistic missiles toward Abha, Jizan, Najran and Khamis Mushait. Ali said the attacks injured 73 people.

The widening fighting is now posing an early test for a new joint defense agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.

Al-Omeisy said the international response allowed the Houthis to exploit divisions among their opponents.

“The Houthis are also good in exploiting divisions and delays, they move rapidly on the ground to force a status quo while the international community debates merits, responsibilities and costs of an intervention.”

The escalation also raises questions about Saudi Arabia’s newly signed defense agreement with Pakistan and Turkey.

The agreement, signed last month in Mecca, states that an armed attack against one member will be considered an attack against all three, Reuters reported Sept. 10. But after Houthi drones and ballistic missiles struck Saudi cities and energy infrastructure this week, Pakistan said Thursday that no military response under the pact was currently being discussed. 

“There is no such thing under discussion right now,” Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sajjad Haider Khan said, according to Reuters. “When time comes [we] will act under the agreement.” 

The Houthis, meanwhile, have said international navigation through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb remains safe, while maintaining that Saudi vessels are subject to their previously announced blockade, Reuters reported Thursday. 

Al-Omeisy warned that reversing the Houthis’ latest territorial gains could become increasingly difficult.

“The Houthis are really good at capturing a position, they entrench really well,” he said. “They send these massive reinforcements, and then it’s going to be extremely difficult to push them out of those areas.”

Oil markets were already responding to the widening regional threat Thursday. Brent crude jumped more than 5% to $106.60 a barrel by late Thursday morning, while U.S. crude climbed above $100 for the first time since May, according to Reuters. 

Reuters contributed to the story.