Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified into a Category 5 system Tuesday morning, while forecast models suggested moisture and remnants from the powerful storm could eventually affect parts of the United States.
Polo was packing maximum sustained winds of 160 mph and traveling east at 6 mph, roughly 360 miles from Zihuatanejo, Mexico.
The hurricane is currently tracking east across the Pacific Ocean. However, the National Hurricane Center expects it to make a pronounced turn toward the northwest Tuesday night before shifting west-northwest on Wednesday.
Over the next seven to 10 days, a small number of forecast scenarios steer Polo or its leftover moisture toward California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas.
Southern California could see the first indirect effects. Even if the storm stays offshore, larger ocean swells, dangerous rip currents and unusually humid tropical air may arrive by the weekend.
Several model runs show Polo weakening as it crosses northern Mexico, with its remnants potentially moving into Arizona and New Mexico before moisture spreads into western Texas later on.
Still, most forecasts keep Polo over the Pacific, and the National Hurricane Center is not currently predicting a US landfall.
Ross Ellet, a meteorologist with 13ABC, wrote on Facebook: “While a few models have this storm turning into the Gulf of California, and possibly into the Southwestern part of the US, most weather maps push this storm northwest away from land. This will need to be watched in the days ahead.”
Hurricane Polo rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm Tuesday morning
A limited number of forecast tracks show Polo or its remnants moving toward California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas within the next seven to 10 days
Forecasters said Polo may strengthen again through Tuesday night, though its intensity could rise and fall on Wednesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 35 miles from the eye, while tropical-storm-force winds reach as far as 90 miles.
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Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the coastline stretching from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo. Damaging weather could begin affecting that region by early Wednesday.
Polo is expected to produce four to eight inches of rain across coastal Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday, with isolated amounts of up to 12 inches. The intense rainfall could cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain.
Coastal areas of Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco could receive three to six inches of rain. Polo will also generate powerful swells, creating dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along southwestern Mexico’s coast.
Dylan Federico, a meteorologist with Florida’s WSVN 7 News, said on Facebook: “Polo is forecast to become one of the strongest hurricanes of all-time in the Eastern Pacific.”
Spaghetti models—computer-generated projections that map possible hurricane tracks—currently show only a handful of scenarios bringing Polo or its remnants into the United States.
California represents the earliest potential point of concern, although only a few models bring Polo’s center close to the state.
Polo was producing maximum sustained winds of 160 mph while moving east at 6 mph about 360 miles from Zihuatanejo, Mexico
Even so, Southern California could experience large swells, hazardous rip currents and higher humidity by the weekend.
Arizona has the clearest potential path, with several tracks carrying the system north through the Gulf of California or Sonora between Monday and Wednesday of next week, potentially bringing heavy tropical rain and flash flooding.
Fewer tracks reach New Mexico, with those that do carrying a much weaker system or tropical moisture east from Arizona and northern Mexico during the middle of next week.
Heavy rainfall and localized flooding would be the primary threats.
Texas is the least certain and most distant possibility. A handful of projections carry Polo’s moisture into western or southern Texas late next week, but they do not show a Category 5 hurricane reaching the state.