Scientists are warning that hundreds of Australians could lose their lives in the months ahead as an unusually intense “super El Niño” sends temperatures soaring above seasonal averages.
Climate Impact Lab researchers estimate the weather pattern could contribute to 260 additional heat-related deaths across Australia between September and February, including nearly half in New South Wales.
Their modelling suggests average temperatures during the six-month period could be around 1.2C higher than normal.
The report, published on Tuesday, projects a further 61 heat-related deaths in Queensland, 72 in Western Australia, 12 in South Australia and three in the Northern Territory.
Victoria, by contrast, is forecast to record a net reduction of 13 heat-related deaths compared with figures recorded between 1996 and 2025.
The warning comes as report authors Michael Greenstone, Tamma Carleton, Genevieve Maricle and Emily Grover-Kopec predict that the super El Niño could be linked to an additional 451,000 deaths worldwide during its first nine months.
“El Niño is effectively taking us into the future,” the researchers said, exposing people to temperatures that are not expected to become typical for another 20 years, before communities have had enough time to adapt and protect lives.
A striking map illustrates how hot Australia could become this summer
Scientists say the extreme heat offers a glimpse of the climate-crisis future ahead
The researchers said the unusually warm conditions would mirror the higher temperatures climate change is expected to bring roughly two decades from now.
They added that forecasts indicating El Niño could persist through spring 2027 mean the estimates may rise further, particularly because above-average temperatures and heat-related health impacts could continue into June and July.
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The study also estimates that the event could produce 44 per cent more days of “extreme heat” than would normally occur in an average year.
Poorer regions are expected to bear the greatest burden of the extreme weather. In Africa’s Sahel region, Nigeria alone could see an estimated 31,400 additional deaths between this month and February.
Other countries facing significant increases include Indonesia, with a projected 19,300 extra deaths, Sudan with 17,500, India with 15,800 and Brazil with 13,300.
The authors described the unusually high global temperatures expected during this El Niño as a “postcard from the future” — conditions that feel abnormal today but could become commonplace within just a few decades.
They said the short-term mortality projections show where the world may be heading if investment in adaptation fails to keep pace. Unlike an El Niño event, however, climate change leaves more time to introduce measures that could prevent deaths.
The report urged governments to direct emergency funding towards the regions facing the greatest risks. Recommended measures include heat alerts, targeted health checks for vulnerable people, cooling centres, hydration stations and stronger protections for outdoor workers.
Australians are being urged to prepare for a potentially brutal start to summer, with El Niño increasing the likelihood of scorching days, oppressive nights, heatwaves and dangerous fire conditions
“We need to establish the evidence now, identify what works and invest in preparation and planning,” the authors said.
They added that preparing for a hotter climate would require detailed, continually updated information about the measures that save lives across different regions, climates and healthcare systems.
The Bureau of Meteorology says temperatures are likely to remain above average across most of the country through the end of the year, while its climate models indicate the developing El Niño could become the strongest on record.
– READ MORE: ‘Supercharged’: El Nino brings drier, hotter conditions