Labour is heading for a shortfall of around 500,000 homes against its housebuilding pledge, according to an analysis of official data.
The Government is expected to deliver fewer than one million homes during this Parliament—around a third below its target of 1.5 million, figures from the Land Value Calculator suggest.
The analysis comes days after Housing Secretary Angela Rayner acknowledged that there was only a “slim chance” of reaching the 1.5 million-home goal by 2029.
The estimated number of homes completed last year has been revised down to 196,900. That leaves England around 223,000 homes behind the pace required to meet the Government’s commitment.
According to the land valuation website, the deficit is increasing by 282 homes each day and is expected to pass 250,000 between Christmas and New Year.
Meeting the target would require an average of 1,041 homes to be completed every day until July 2029—almost twice the current rate of 539 a day, the analysis found.
Completions in the year to June 2026 are the lowest recorded since 2016, while the number of homes receiving planning permission has fallen by 30 per cent over four years, researchers said.
The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Government (MHCLG) reduced its estimate for the number of homes added last year from 199,500 to 196,900.
Housing Secretary Angela Rayner has admitted there is a “slim chance” of meeting the 1.5 million-home target by 2029
The department said 437,900 homes had been built since the election, compared with the roughly 660,000 that would have been needed by this point to remain on course for the pledge.
Researchers noted that housing starts had risen by 15 per cent over the past year. However, they said around two-thirds of that increase came from London, where construction had previously fallen close to a standstill.
Starts across the rest of the country increased by only about five per cent, they added, making it improbable that Labour will reach its target by the predicted end of the Parliament in July 2029.
The number of homes granted planning permission also dropped by 12 per cent over the past year to 212,000, and has declined by 30 per cent in four years, according to the research.
Researchers said any home that has not yet secured planning permission is unlikely to be completed by 2029.
A spokesman for landvaluecalculator.co.uk said: “The Housing Secretary said there was a slim chance. This week’s figures put a number on that assessment.
“The Government is on course to miss its flagship pledge by a third and build roughly half the number of homes that its own assessment says England needs.
“Ministers are entitled to point to the rise in housing starts. But much of that increase reflects London’s recovery, completions are at their lowest level since 2016 and the number of homes with planning permission has fallen by 30 per cent in four years.
“Homes without planning consent today will not be completed by 2029.”
Katie Lam, the shadow housing secretary, said: “Labour is failing abysmally to deliver the new homes the country needs.
“Its tax rises and red tape have made housebuilding unviable. The only construction boom under Labour is taking place on illegal traveller sites.”
‘In Labour-run London, Sadiq Khan is plumbing depths of housebuilding failure not seen since the Second World War.’
An MHCLG spokesperson said: ‘We’re determined to get this country building again, and with new housing starts up 20per cent compared to this time last year, and a 298per cent increase in London alone, our bold planning reforms are working.
‘We’ve always been clear that delivering 1.5million homes is an ambitious target, but these figures show more homes coming through the pipeline as our reforms take effect.’