Democratic strategist Paul Begala is forecasting a Republican “wipeout” in the 2026 midterms, citing Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s unexpectedly competitive reelection campaign as an early warning sign for the GOP.
Begala, a veteran Democratic strategist, said Sunday that Abbott’s narrowing advantage over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa could reflect a much broader surge for Democrats heading into November.
“This is not going to be a win,” said Begala, who helped engineer Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential victory, during an appearance on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
“And it’s not going to be a wave. It’s going to be a wipeout.”
The Texas governor’s race has tightened sharply, with Abbott’s polling lead shrinking from seven points to 1.8 points in the RealClearPolitics average.
Abbott, who is seeking an unprecedented fourth term, remains the odds-on favorite. Still, his margin was nearly 11 percentage points in his 2022 reelection victory.
Republican strategist Ashley Davis challenged Begala’s forecast, saying a Democratic takeover of the Senate is far from certain. She also argued that Republicans are unlikely to endure the kind of historic House collapse Democrats suffered in 2010.
“Is this an election against Trump? Yes,” Davis said. “Do I think we’re going to lose the Senate right now? Probably not.”
Davis also noted that the Democratic Party is less popular today than it was during previous wave elections. In 2018, generic-ballot polling showed Democrats ahead of Republicans by 12 points; that advantage is now about 5 points.
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Even so, Abbott’s contest against Hinojosa is attracting national attention — in part because Abbott is no ordinary incumbent.
The 68-year-old Republican has served as Texas governor since 2015. Before taking office, he was the state’s attorney general and a member of the Texas Supreme Court.
Winning a fourth full term would eventually make Abbott the longest-serving governor in Texas history.
Abbott’s campaign reported more than $67 million in cash on hand as of June 30 and said it collected over $28 million during the first half of 2026. Later campaign-finance filings from other sources put his war chest above $100 million.
But his job approval rating has fallen by 3% over the past four years, according to the Texas Politics Project, giving Hinojosa an opening to criticize his record.
Hinojosa, a 52-year-old Austin lawyer, has centered her campaign on the cost of living, public education, energy policy and the influence of major corporations. She says Texans are prepared for a change after more than a decade under Abbott’s leadership.
Begala said Abbott’s failure to reach 50% support in some polls is especially troubling for a sitting governor.
“When strategists read polls, they say, where’s the incumbent?” Begala said. “And if the incumbent’s below 50, he’s in big trouble.”
Begala also credited Hinojosa and fellow Democratic state Rep. James Talarico — who is running in the more closely watched Senate race — with mobilizing voters disillusioned by President Trump.
“We have a very vulnerable country, and Gina is, I think, running a great campaign along with James Talarico in energizing all these voters who have been so turned off by Trump,” he said.