My immediate reaction to the news that counter-terrorism officers had declared a “major incident” near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire and arrested several men on explosives-related offences was one of exhausted disbelief: not another one.
When the threat of an atrocity starts to feel routine, it is clear that a country faces a profound security problem. At the time of writing, investigators are examining whether the alleged bomb plot is connected to Iran.
That is a serious allegation. But having seen at close quarters what Tehran’s brutal regime is capable of, I believe counter-terrorism police are right to investigate the possibility.
The first question is why RAF Fairford may have been targeted. The Gloucestershire airbase is one of the few European airfields capable of accommodating America’s B-1 and B-52 heavy bombers. Following the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran on February 28, Britain permitted American forces to use the base for strikes against Iranian missile sites.
Tehran responded furiously. In July, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps described Britain as a “definite and legitimate target” if it supported the American war, explicitly referring to US bombers operating from British bases.
It remains unknown whether Iran was behind the incident at Fairford. But if it was, no one in Whitehall can say the warning was absent. And even if the plot proves unrelated, the threat posed by the Iranian regime has become more serious than ever.
From Tehran’s perspective, Britain is now assisting a conventional military campaign against Iran. That makes British bases involved in attacks potential targets. Yet although Iran can strike US installations across the Middle East, launching conventional missile attacks against Britain is far less practical because of the distance.
To sustain its decades-long conflict with the leading Western powers, Iran therefore has to find other methods. And when it comes to murder, sabotage and covert operations, the regime has shown considerable ingenuity.
Fairford is one of the few European airfields capable of handling America’s B-1 and B-52 heavy bombers
For years, Iran has developed alternative ways to reach adversaries who cannot easily be hit with missiles, relying on bombs, assassins and other covert tactics to continue the fight.
Since 2022, MI5 and counter-terrorism police have disrupted more than 20 potentially deadly Iran-backed plots in Britain. Some involved alleged plans to kill or abduct opponents of the regime.
Iranian targets have included dissidents, journalists and Jewish communities and institutions. Earlier this year, I reported from Golders Green in north London after three masked men set fire to four ambulances operated by the Jewish volunteer service Hatzola, causing about £1 million in damage. An Iran-linked organisation claimed responsibility, although no direct connection to Tehran has been established.
In March 2024, Pouria Zeraati, a presenter with the London-based opposition broadcaster Iran International, was stabbed outside his home in Wimbledon. The suspected hit team then drove to Heathrow and left Britain within hours.
The attackers were Romanian criminals recruited as proxies. Two were later extradited to Britain and imprisoned. Threats against the television station became so severe that it temporarily closed its London studios and broadcast from Washington instead.
Between 2022 and 2023, Britain was subjected to a largely thwarted campaign of assassination and kidnapping that passed almost unnoticed by the wider public. MI5 and the Metropolitan Police said they had stopped at least 15 Iranian plots targeting British nationals or UK residents whom Tehran considered enemies of the regime.
The number of Iranian operations in Britain has become so extensive that it is possible to follow the development of Tehran’s methods almost in real time. Britain has served as a testing ground where Iran has refined its ability to kill, spy and intimidate while attempting to keep its own involvement hidden.
Sending operatives directly from Tehran is increasingly a thing of the past. Instead, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian intelligence services are turning more often to local criminals and other hired proxies to carry out their operations.
Counter-terrorism police are investigating whether the alleged bomb plot has links to Iran
The strategy is straightforward. Criminals are inexpensive, replaceable and easier to disown. Their use can make an attack more difficult to trace while preserving Tehran’s deniability. MI5 says Iranian state actors make “extensive use of criminals as proxies”, from international drug traffickers to low-level offenders.
This is the increasingly familiar face of Iran’s shadow war against Britain.
And our response to all this can be summed up in one depressing image: Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband shaking hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at the United Nations in New York last week.
Labour punishes the Israelis for defending their country and extends its hand to the Iranians for attacking ours.
We have been lucky. Once again, the terror that our political class refuses to adequately confront has been foiled by the security services it refuses to adequately fund.
But don’t worry – I’m told that Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Defence Secretary Wes Streeting are being ‘regularly briefed’ on the situation. Fear is no doubt coursing through IRGC senior command as I write.
So, if we sigh with relief that the plot appears to have been foiled, our response must amount to more than a grateful exhalation – because, believe me, more Iranian attacks are coming.
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