Foiled Terror Plot at Bomber Base Highlights Broader Threat to U.S. Military Installations, Expert Says

Five men arrested Sunday near a major U.S. bomber base in the United Kingdom may have been preparing a “complex” and coordinated attack with potentially global consequences for American military installations, according to a former U.S. intelligence official.

As counterterrorism officers investigated the arrests near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire, a former Pentagon official said President Donald Trump would ultimately determine the response if investigators establish that “the trail leads to Tehran.”

The suspects were first detained on suspicion of violating Britain’s Explosives Act and were later arrested on terrorism charges linked to the airfield. RAF Fairford is a key U.S. Air Force facility and the main European base for American strategic bombers.

Trump said Sunday that U.S. authorities had been tracking the suspects before their arrests.

“We had them under investigation,” Trump told reporters in Chicago. “They were looking to do big damage to our fort.”

“It may have been Scotland Yard. I don’t know. We worked with a lot of them. We had them under view for a long time, and we got them,” Trump said.

According to Sky News, counterterrorism investigators are examining whether Iran could be connected to the suspected bomb plot.

Morgan Murphy, a former Trump White House official, told News Media that British authorities are directing the investigation in coordination with U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies.

“Every phone, bank record and rental receipt will be run through British and American intelligence, and if the trail leads to Tehran, it will be found,” Murphy said.

“But as American airmen and bombers seem to have been the target, Air Force investigators on the base, the FBI in London, and American intelligence will likely all work the case.”

“If conclusive evidence proves Iran is behind an attempted attack on U.S. forces, the American President will ultimately decide how Tehran pays,” Murphy added.

Andrew Badger, a former Defense Intelligence Agency official, told News Media that the number of suspects and vehicles involved suggested the possibility of a sophisticated operation.

“We are going to see elevated security protocols across Europe, across the U.K., and across the entire world for any U.S. installation,” he said.

“This is a very significant threat, and again, seeing that we had five individuals involved and three different reported vans at the scene, this could have been a very complex, highly orchestrated operation,” Badger said.

“This isn’t just some type of amateur lone wolf operation,” he said, emphasizing Fairford’s strategic role. “Fairford is also where the U.S. houses its strategic bombers for Europe as well as the rest of the world.”

Badger said a possible attack could have created risks well beyond the airfield itself, warning that it “could have had significant security implications” and might have damaged the surrounding area.

“They could have tried to use a VBIED or a vehicle-borne explosive device where the first van could have gone off at the front gate, and then the other vans would have gone in and tried to go for the strategic bombers,” Badger said.

British authorities have not publicly identified who they believe was behind the suspected plot or announced a motive, but RAF Fairford had taken on greater strategic importance during the war with Iran.

The U.K. government previously authorized U.S. forces to use the Royal Air Force bases Fairford and Diego Garcia for limited defensive operations, including destroying Iranian missiles and launchers at their source.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) later warned that any base used to attack Iranian territory would be considered a legitimate target.

“Any base used to launch attacks on Iranian territory is a legitimate target for our forces,” the IRGC said, according to reports.

“Tehran warned London in July to keep American bombers off Fairford, and if this plot traces back to Iran, the answer must be more bombers, not fewer,” Morgan said.

A local councilor told Reuters there had been a recent security alert at Fairford and surveillance had been stepped up.

“So there was a specific threat about six weeks ago from the Iranians on this base. At the time, there was increased surveillance around the area,” he told the outlet.

Badger, however, cautioned against assuming Iran was responsible while pointing to other potential threats.

“This could be Iran trying to gain strategic leverage in negotiations, but there are other actors as well,” Badger added.

“But there’s Russia, who’s been launching a campaign of gray zone or hybrid warfare attacks across Europe, as well as Islamic extremists, which are still a significant threat here in the U.K.”

“Was this some type of retaliation by Iran to perhaps try to gain leverage or to try to inflict a cost for the U.S. withdrawing from these negotiations? Again, we don’t know for sure, but it is a possibility,” Badger said.

Badger also pointed to RAF Welford, a major U.S. ammunition storage facility that primarily supports operations at RAF Fairford.

“RAF Welford is actually the second-largest weapons and ammunition depot in all of Europe,” Badger said, noting that the facility where the U.S. stores ammunition “could have been a target as well.”

“Other bases across Europe, including European and U.S. partners, have already been on a heightened state of alert,” Badger continued.

“But of course, after this attack, I think they’re going to be in an even more heightened state. You’re going to have more frequent security patrols.”

“There are reports that RAF Fairford was put onto what’s called the Delta alert, which is the highest state of security alert within the military base system,” Badger said.

“So this is basically that ‘an imminent terrorist attack is inbound,'” he concluded.