California Gov. Gavin Newsom is heading toward the end of his tenure with only tepid support at home — a warning sign that could complicate the Democrat’s potential 2028 presidential campaign.
In a poll released by NBCUniversal Local and the Telemundo Station Group, 45% of 625 registered California voters approved of Newsom’s performance, while 46% disapproved.
The survey, conducted Sept. 21-24, revealed a sharp partisan divide. Roughly 93% of Republican respondents said Newsom was doing a poor job, while 56% of independents also gave him negative marks.
Matt Rexroad, a political consultant, told The Post that Newsom’s greatest challenge may be his weak standing outside California’s two dominant metropolitan areas: Los Angeles and the Bay Area.
In largely rural Northern California — excluding Sacramento and the Bay Area — just 28% of voters approved of Newsom’s job performance, compared with 60% who disapproved.
“This does not impact his Presidential campaign directly, but it does indicate that he does not know how to communicate with rural voters,” Rexroad said.
“The people of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina will not be impressed with a politician from California who wants to talk about being from 1) California 2) San Francisco and 3) now lives in Marin County,” he added.
Rexroad pointed to a recent Republican Governors Association advertisement linking a Democratic candidate for governor in Kansas to California as evidence of the Golden State’s deeply polarizing national image.
The survey also found a pronounced gender divide. Most men disapproved of Newsom’s performance, while most women approved. By race, a majority of white Californians viewed him negatively, whereas Hispanic and Asian respondents generally offered positive assessments.
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Approximately 74% of California Democrats approved of Newsom’s job performance. But Morris Levy, an associate professor of political science at the University of Southern California, said that level of support may not be sufficient for a national campaign in an increasingly polarized political climate.
“In short, Democrats mostly support Newsom, and Republicans are overwhelmingly opposed,” Levy said.
“Some Democrats are also lukewarm on Newsom, or dissatisfied with his performance, and this could become an issue if he seeks the nomination.”
Levy said the divide is driven in large part by partisanship, noting that President Donald Trump’s approval-rating breakdown appears to be a “mirror image” of Newsom’s.
The poll found that 66% of California Democrats would be inclined to support Newsom for the Democratic presidential nomination, compared with 15% who would not. Levy cautioned, however, that the question did not ask voters to choose between Newsom and competing candidates.
Newsom’s approval remained relatively consistent across age groups, but Levy said the results may not fully capture the challenges he would face in a presidential bid.
“Newsom has sought to position himself as a mainstream Democrat — tussling with Trump but also tacking toward the center on issues such as transgender athletes’ participation in female sports,” he said. “That probably masks the opposition Newsom or Harris would face from the surging younger portion of their base that has shifted far to the left on economic issues, Israel, and more.”
In recent months, Newsom has visited early primary states, including Michigan and South Carolina, as he gauges his appeal beyond California.
The governor has also announced policies and adopted positions that analysts view as efforts to connect with the left-leaning voters who could shape a Democratic presidential primary. This year, for instance, Newsom endorsed a national tax on billionaires despite having long opposed a similar proposal in California.
The Post contacted Newsom’s office for comment on the poll.