Labor support has plunged in its Melbourne heartland of Footscray, according to a striking poll that puts One Nation ahead on the primary vote in a seat Labor has controlled for nearly a century.
The Greens-commissioned survey of 1,000 voters, conducted from September 22 to October 1, found One Nation attracting 28.6 per cent of first-preference votes, narrowly leading Labor on 27.5 per cent.
The figures represent a dramatic shift from the 2022 Victorian election, when Labor captured 43.1 per cent of the primary vote in the electorate.
If the result were replicated on election day, Labor’s primary vote would have fallen by 15.6 percentage points in just four years.
The Liberals recorded 15.1 per cent, just ahead of the Greens on 14.9 per cent, while other parties and independents collectively secured 13.9 per cent.
Created in 1927, Footscray has remained in Labor hands ever since and is widely viewed as part of the party’s traditional stronghold across Melbourne’s western suburbs.
The electorate includes Footscray, Maidstone, Maribyrnong, Seddon and West Footscray, along with parts of Yarraville.
Labor MP Katie Hall, first elected in 2018, received 43.1 per cent of the primary vote at the 2022 election before defeating the Greens on preferences.
One Nation recorded a 28.6 per cent primary vote in a Greens-commissioned internal poll of Footscray
The Greens finished second at the election with 22.4 per cent, while the Liberals polled 17.9 per cent.
A Greens spokesperson has challenged the latest figures, claiming the party’s support in Footscray is above 30 per cent. The poll was nevertheless circulated by sources linked to both the Greens and Labor.
One Nation’s candidate, Alexander Lopez, is a financial controller whose candidate profile says he has worked for more than 30 years across transport and logistics, manufacturing, recycling, automation and commercial property management.
Mr Lopez was born in Argentina and moved to Australia in 1975. His family settled in Footscray, where he grew up in Melbourne’s west.
He attended Hyde Street Primary School and continues to participate in the local community, including through masters football.
The poll also delivers a significant setback for the Greens, who were Labor’s principal challenger in Footscray at the last election.
Greens candidate Elena Pereyra won 22.4 per cent of the primary vote in 2022 and went on to contest the final count against Ms Hall.
The latest survey indicates that Greens support has dropped sharply, placing the party behind both One Nation and Labor.
For Labor, the warning contained in the figures is even more serious.
Ben Carroll, pictured, faces pressure as Labor support has fallen in polling since 2022
Footscray has traditionally been considered one of Victoria’s safest electorates, with Labor retaining the seat throughout its 99-year history.
The internal Footscray polling reflects broader trends across Victoria, where Labor continues to struggle in public polls ahead of the November election.
A Freshwater Strategy poll of 1,030 voters conducted between September 24 and 28 found Labor’s primary vote had slipped one point since August to 24 per cent, while the Coalition also fell one point to 29 per cent.
One Nation remained steady at 22 per cent, while the Greens were unchanged on 14 per cent.
The survey put the Coalition ahead of Labor 53-47 on a two-party preferred basis, representing an eight-point swing against the government compared with the 2022 election and a one-point improvement for the Coalition since Freshwater’s August poll.
Opposition Leader Jess Wilson topped the poll as preferred Premier with 37 per cent with Ben Carroll in second at 30 per cent.
One Nation Victorian leader Warren Pickering was preferred premier by just 13 per cent of voters.