Finding affordable holiday airfare depends not only on when you travel, but also on when you buy your ticket. This year, booking early could be especially important as airfares continue to rise, according to new Google data.
Google Flights says Thanksgiving travelers are likely to find the lowest fares in October. Those planning Christmas trips should aim to finalize their flights by about Halloween.
When to book flights for optimal deals
When travel dates are fairly firm, booking as soon as possible is generally the safest strategy. Google Flights, which analyzed five years of airfare data, found that Thanksgiving fares are lowest about 34 days before departure. Since Thanksgiving falls on Nov. 26, the ideal booking date for travel on the Wednesday before the holiday is Oct. 22. In general, the best window for Thanksgiving flights is between 57 and 21 days before departure.
For Christmas travel, fares are expected to reach their lowest point about 56 days before departure. Google Flights found that travelers can often secure better prices between 33 and 67 days ahead of their trip. With roughly 80 days remaining until Christmas as of Oct. 5, the strongest deals are expected to appear from late October through mid-November.
Other ways to save
Traveling on less-busy days can also help reduce the cost of holiday flights. Hopper data indicates that flying on the Monday or Tuesday before Thanksgiving, instead of Wednesday, may lead to meaningful savings. The airfare aggregator also recommends avoiding a return trip on Sunday, Nov. 29.
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A similar pattern applies to Christmas travel. Hopper suggests steering clear of flights on Dec. 18, 19 and 20, as well as Dec. 27—the Sunday following Christmas Day.
Travelers should also prepare for above-average airfares as the Iran war pushes up oil and jet fuel costs. Fuel is the airline industry’s largest expense after labor. Before the conflict in the Middle East began in late February, global jet fuel prices averaged $99 per barrel, according to the International Air Transport Association. Prices climbed to $209 per barrel in April and reached $195 in mid-September, based on IATA figures citing S&P Global Energy Platts data.
Hopper estimates that domestic round-trip flights for Thanksgiving currently average $402, a 31% increase from last year. Christmas airfare is also more expensive, with domestic round-trip tickets averaging $452—up 23% year over year.