Alberta Holds Non-Binding Separation Vote as Canada Independence Debate Intensifies

Voting began Monday across Alberta in a non-binding referendum asking whether the western Canadian province should take steps toward leaving Canada.

The vote is unfolding as Alberta grieves the deaths of four soldiers and as dozens more recover from injuries sustained in a rapidly spreading fire at a military base in the province.

A poll of 1,021 people published Saturday by Abacus Data found that 74% of decided voters support remaining part of the Canadian Confederation. But the separatist question is unlikely to fade for the roughly 30% who want the provincial government to launch a binding referendum on independence, said veteran activist Cory Morgan, head of the Pathway to Independence group.

“It will say that about one in three Albertans have had it,” Morgan told News Media. “There is a big rift within Alberta, and if things don’t change, it will be a growing faction in this province — so this vote is an important one.”

Approximately 3 million Alberta residents are eligible to cast ballots.

A separate Abacus survey found that 61% of the 1,021 eligible voters questioned believe Albertans will revisit separation at the ballot box, even if the province votes to remain in Canada this time.

The Angus Reid Institute reported Friday that 62% of 1,010 Albertans surveyed think the province’s separatist movement will never truly disappear.

Morgan, who headed the short-lived Alberta Independence Party from 2000 to 2001, said only “a vocal minority” of separatists support Alberta becoming the 51st U.S. state. Most independence advocates, he said, “don’t want to become a small fish in an even bigger pond.” He also pointed to Albertans’ current unease with President Trump, saying it has made leaving Canada less appealing.

Speaking Friday at a “Forever Canadian” rally in Edmonton, the city where he grew up, Prime Minister Mark Carney told more than 5,000 attendees that the referendum was happening “at the worst possible time.” He argued that the world is increasingly dangerous and fractured, while warning that forces beyond Canada’s borders are trying to divide the country so they can control it — an apparent reference to Trump’s trade conflict with Canada and comments about annexation.

Morgan, 55, who was born and raised in Alberta, said the province is “politically and culturally different” from eastern Canada. He cited Alberta’s stronger emphasis on individual liberty and property rights — values often associated with the United States.

“Most Albertans are going to feel much more comfortable sitting down for a beer with people from Great Falls, Montana, than they would in Ottawa,” Morgan said. He noted that Alberta’s population grew after it entered Confederation in 1905 with migration from Montana, while U.S. energy companies including Chevron and Mobil played an important role in developing the province’s oil industry after discoveries in the 1940s.

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Earlier this year, during an appearance on Real America’s Voice from Davos, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Alberta “a natural partner for the U.S.” and described its residents as “very independent people.”

Carney responded that he “expect[ed] the U.S. administration to respect Canadian sovereignty.”

The Globe and Mail reported earlier this month that Alberta separatist figures met Republican political strategists in Calgary in January to discuss software intended to locate and organize supporters. The newspaper also reported that separatist representatives proposed a possible exchange of Alberta’s water and oil for U.S. backing during meetings with State Department officials in Washington last year.

Premier Danielle Smith told CBC News that if Albertans vote to remain in Canada, she would not call another separation referendum while she remains in office.

Morgan noted, however, that Albertans will return to the polls for a general election on Oct. 18, 2027, and Smith may not still be premier by then. He previously helped found the conservative Wildrose Party, which Smith once led.

The Wildrose Party later combined with Alberta’s Progressive Conservative Party in 2020, creating the United Conservative Party, now led by Smith. Morgan said more than half of the UCP’s roughly 55,000 members support independence, even though Smith has said she will vote for Alberta to remain in Canada.

Angus Reid, founder and chairman of the Angus Reid Institute, told News Media that in his firm’s recent polling, 67% of the 293 UCP voters who support a future binding referendum on separation said that they would either “definitely support” or “consider” supporting the creation of a separatist provincial political party – not unlike the Parti Québécois, which won the recent election in Quebec.

The emergence of an independence party in Alberta “would probably spell the death of the UCP since it is so badly divided between separatists and non-separatists, and it would likely end the career of Danielle Smith because of the amount of breakage in her party,” said Reid, whose firm’s survey found that 60% of the respondents who support a future binding referendum are “more likely sending a message to Ottawa” about the Canadian government’s often fractious relationship with Alberta.

“Separatist types are looking at how much leverage Quebec has been able to achieve in Canada as a result of its threats of exiting, and saying ‘Hold it, we can play that game too,’” explained Reid.

As of Saturday, more than 1.2 million Albertans had cast a ballot on the referendum, which, in addition to the question on separation, has nine others, five focusing on immigration, such as one asking voters whether their province should take more control “for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities.”