Police chiefs have warned that Scotland could face a “lawless” future as a funding crisis threatens to force officers to prioritise emergency calls.
Response times for non-emergency incidents are expected to increase unless ministers address a £110million shortfall in the finances of Police Scotland, the single force created by the SNP Government in 2013.
Senior officers said failing to cover unavoidable cost pressures would mean concentrating on 999 calls. That could leave the public waiting longer for non-emergency assistance and reduce resources available for crime prevention.
The warning follows a statement from the Scottish Police Authority (SPA), the civilian body responsible for overseeing policing, that additional funding was needed to avoid the “devastating” loss of more than 1,200 police officers and staff.
Scottish Tory justice spokesman Stephen Kerr said: “Scotland is in danger of becoming a lawless society under an SNP government that has repeatedly failed to tackle soaring levels of crime.
“Police officers cannot be expected to keep communities safe when ministers leave them overstretched and struggling to do their jobs.
“John Swinney must stop taking the police for granted and deliver the funding needed to put officers where they belong – on the streets, preventing crime and protecting the public.
“Criminals must never be allowed to think the odds are stacked in their favour because the SNP have stripped the police of resources.”
Police chiefs have warned that the funding crisis could force the service to prioritise emergency calls
Police Scotland issued its warning in evidence submitted to Holyrood’s justice committee ahead of the Scottish Budget in December.
The force said mental health incidents now take up the equivalent of hundreds of officers’ time every year. It also highlighted growing demands linked to hostile state activity, cyber threats, protests and serious organised crime.
The Police Scotland report said: “Without additional funding, Police Scotland will be required to prioritise statutory and emergency response activity, reducing the service provided to communities and limiting our ability to invest in prevention, early intervention and transformation.”
It added: “Demand does not reduce under a lower budget settlement.”
Even an immediate freeze on pay and recruitment would fail to eliminate the funding gap, the report said. Such measures would reduce the workforce by around 1,260 people during 2027-28 and save approximately £43million.
The report said operational leaders would focus on the areas presenting the greatest threat, harm and risk, including violence against women and girls, online child sexual abuse and exploitation, countering state threats, community policing and digital transformation. However, it warned that inadequate investment would still restrict Police Scotland’s capacity in each area.
Police Scotland recorded more than 230,000 mental health-related incidents in 2025-26, representing almost one in five incidents attended by officers.
About 85 per cent of those incidents involved no crime, while responding to them required the equivalent of 481 full-time officers.
The force also responds to more than 200 crimes and offences against women and girls every day, describing the situation as an “emergency”.
Domestic abuse crimes increased by 10.4 per cent over the past year, reaching 24,018 cases.
At the same time, Police Scotland said the threat posed by state-sponsored criminal activity had reached its “highest level”.
The report cited threats from hostile states including Russia, China and Iran.
It said: ‘Counter terrorism work is diversifying and against a backdrop of increasingly volatile geopolitics and international conflicts, the threat of state-sponsored criminal activity is at its highest level.
‘The threat from foreign states and their proxies is putting lives at risk and undermining our democratic values.
‘Scotland is not immune to these threats.
‘As a result, Police Scotland must strengthen our capacity and capability to deal with state threats.’
Police Scotland said civil unrest ‘manifesting in protest and, at times, disorder and violence has increased’.
Last year, officers were deployed to 2,190 protests – up 19 per cent on the previous year.
Scottish Government recorded crime statistics show community and public order offences increased by 3 per cent compared to the previous year (from 10,151 to 10,490 offences) and increased by 14 per cent from the year ending June 2022 (from 9,189 to 10,490 offences). Police Scotland said: ‘We do not anticipate an end to this demand.’
Meanwhile, according to workforce surveys, only 29 per cent of respondents agreed there were enough people in their team or department to allow them to do their job effectively.
It comes after a separate bombshell SPA report revealed that Police Scotland is facing ‘devastating’ cuts without additional funding.
The SPA issued the unprecedented warning on the cash crisis engulfing the force while also admitting trust in the police service is now falling.
It said officer numbers could plummet to the lowest level for more than 20 years unless the force is given sufficient funds in Finance Secretary Jenny Gilruth’s Budget in December.
It is the first time the SPA has delivered such a blunt message to ministers, including the admission that policing is ‘under severe strain’ while ‘trust and confidence’ in the service is ‘decreasing’.
Justice Secretary Neil Gray said: ‘Our police perform a vital role keeping Scotland’s communities safe, which is why we have invested record funding of more than £1.7billion for policing in 2026-27.
‘We will continue to work with Police Scotland and the Scottish Police Authority to understand their 2027-28 budget requirements which will feed into the Scottish Government budget process.’