Netanyahu’s Political Future on the Line as Israel Heads to Polls Amid Looming Iran Threat

With Israel’s Oct. 27 national election approaching, President Donald Trump delivered a broad endorsement of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bid for another term, describing him as a “great warrior,” an “even greater partner for peace” and a key ally in confronting Iran.

The endorsement could strengthen Israel’s longest-serving prime minister ahead of the country’s first national vote since the Hamas-led massacre of Oct. 7, 2023. Israelis widely see the election as a referendum on whether Netanyahu should remain in office and continue pursuing his wartime goals, including the disarmament of Hamas and Hezbollah and efforts to counter the nuclear threat posed by the Islamic Republic.

Netanyahu responded by thanking Trump for his “extraordinary endorsement.” “Together we will never let Iran’s regime get nuclear weapons,” he said.

Doron Spielman, international spokesman for the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office, said Trump’s endorsement underscored a relationship unlike any personal or professional partnership in the history of U.S.-Israel ties.

“Israel and the U.S. have stood together as the two countries bearing the torch for the West, and that is a direct result of the incredible relationship between President Trump and Netanyahu,” he told News Media.

Spielman also repeated Netanyahu’s longstanding foreign-policy focus and central campaign pledge: preventing Iran from obtaining atomic weapons while he is in office.

“Israel prefers to do this with the U.S., which has been our greatest ally and friend, and who has already entered the front with us twice. But already at the time of Operation Rising Lion, Israel showed that it was willing to act alone. Israel acted for over a week before the U.S. joined,” he said, referring to the June 2025 military operation against Iran.

Netanyahu, who has spent approximately 20 years in office, began his diplomatic career in 1982 as deputy chief of mission at Israel’s embassy in Washington, D.C. From 1984 to 1988, he served as Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations before entering politics with Likud. He became the party’s chairman in 1993 and won his first election as prime minister in 1996.

After losing the 1999 election, Netanyahu returned to government in 2002 as foreign minister and later became finance minister. He reclaimed the premiership in 2009, remaining in office until 2021 and returning again in late 2022. He is credited with liberalizing Israel’s economy and helping establish the country as a global high-tech powerhouse.

Netanyahu’s coalition partners currently include Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism-Zehut, and the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. The newly established Amcha Yisrael, led by Ofer Winter, could also become part of the bloc. However, Winter is feuding with Likud over fears that his party, which is polling close to the electoral threshold, could divide the right-wing vote and “waste” tens of thousands of ballots.

Most polls published by Hebrew-language media indicate that neither Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot currently has a clear route to the 61 Knesset seats required to form a government.

Should no candidate succeed in building a governing coalition, Israel could be forced into another election. Such an outcome would revive the political instability that led to four national votes between April 2019 and March 2021.

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Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, said any new government would inherit the same daunting security challenges facing the current administration, with little expectation of rapid victories.

“The major challenge in this election will be what Netanyahu discussed in terms of adjusting the national security concept to prioritize prevention. That means taking very serious, assertive and aggressive military counterterrorism and nonmilitary actions against our enemies,” Diker said.

According to Tamar Hermann, a professor and senior researcher at the Israel Democracy Institute, Israel’s left, center and even far-right camps believe Netanyahu has failed to live up to his reputation as “Mr. Security.”

“He promised to topple the Iranian regime, he promised to dismantle Hamas, he promised to crush Hezbollah. None of it was achieved,” Hermann told News Media. “He gave a green light to not punishing vigilantes in the settlements who act against Palestinians. He also gave too much to the ultra-Orthodox parties, giving up on the idea of universal conscription.”

Hermann said Netanyahu’s current tenure has been his least successful. It began with a judicial reform campaign that sparked mass protests in 2023 and was followed by the Palestinian terror attacks of Oct. 7. Netanyahu then faced widespread public anger over his handling of the hostage crisis, although he ultimately secured the return of all the captives in coordination with Trump and his envoys.

“In the eyes of some, his legacy will be that he inflicted a huge disaster upon Israel in terms of what happened to civilians on Oct. 7 and the deterioration of Israel’s international image,” she said.

Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States, framed the upcoming election in terms of legacy and how Netanyahu will be remembered 50 years from now.

“There are two types of leaders: leaders in history and leaders of history,” he told News Media. “There are leaders who go into office and perform as best they can, and there are leaders who go into office and see themselves as transformative, as having a historical role like Abraham Lincoln, Roosevelt or Churchill. Benjamin Netanyahu belongs to this category.”

Oren said Netanyahu sees his mission as saving Israel from existential threats, foremost among them Iran, a goal he has yet to achieve.

“He is willing to endure virtually limitless criticism and condemnation around the world, as well as mass demonstrations against him, to fulfill this one role,” he said. “To understand that is to understand Benjamin Netanyahu: He is a leader of history.”