Netanyahu’s Bloc Falls Short as Longtime Allies Weigh Move That Could End His Rule

Israel’s final election results show that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s political bloc no longer holds a parliamentary majority. Yet the path for opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to form an alternative government remains uncertain as coalition talks move into private negotiations.

The finalized tally, released early Friday by Israel’s Central Elections Committee, awarded Netanyahu’s bloc 53 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, while Eisenkot’s opposition alliance won 48. The two primarily Arab parties captured a record 19 seats, giving them a potentially pivotal role in determining Israel’s next government.

Netanyahu’s Likud remained the largest single party with 27 seats, ahead of Eisenkot’s Yashar with 21 and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Beyachad with 12. Overall turnout was 77.9%, according to the Central Elections Committee results.

Neither major camp reached the 61 seats needed to govern alone, setting the stage for difficult negotiations that could involve Arab lawmakers, ultra-Orthodox parties or even a unity government between longtime political adversaries.

A person familiar with the opposition’s discussions, speaking to News Media on condition of anonymity, characterized the outcome as a “bitter stalemate” but said it did not make a change of government impossible.

The source said opposition leaders were entering coalition talks with patience and political experience rather than viewing the result as a defeat. The next government, the source argued, may hinge on whether Eisenkot’s camp can build alliances that appeared unthinkable during the campaign.

Ultra-Orthodox allies explore a break with Netanyahu

A potentially important opening emerged Friday when Israeli journalist Yishai Cohen of Kikar HaShabbat reported that Rabbi Dov Lando, a leading ultra-Orthodox authority, had directed lawmakers from Degel HaTorah, a faction of United Torah Judaism, to begin contacts with the opposition.

The reported aim was to secure protections for yeshiva students amid the long-running political dispute over exemptions from mandatory military service.

Channel 12 reported that some ultra-Orthodox lawmakers were weighing whether to allow an Eisenkot-led minority government to remain in power with outside parliamentary backing—an outcome that would mark a break with Netanyahu.

“Our votes are not in Netanyahu’s pocket,” party figures said, according to a translation of the Hebrew-language report cited by Channel 12.

The office of United Torah Judaism Chairman Yaakov Asher, however, rejected the report and said no directive to open negotiations had been issued.

Any such deal would signal a major departure from the party’s established partnership with Netanyahu. Eisenkot’s promise to broaden military conscription for ultra-Orthodox men remains a formidable barrier, though Channel 12 said party figures were prepared to explore a compromise.

The source familiar with opposition deliberations said Eisenkot’s team had been planning for possible cooperation with ultra-Orthodox parties well before election day. That suggests several of the scenarios now emerging were already being examined privately.

The source said any agreement could involve concessions on military service as well as outside support from Arab lawmakers, potentially uniting factions that presented themselves as fundamentally opposed during the campaign.

Arab parties signal flexibility, but obstacles remain

Arab parties offer another possible route to power after nearly doubling their Knesset representation from 10 to 19 seats, driven by a sharp increase in turnout.

Even so, political observers have offered differing views on whether an Arab-backed government can realistically be formed.

Channel 12 reported Thursday that Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas was deeply doubtful that an Eisenkot-led minority government backed by Arab lawmakers could be established.

Israeli political commentator Amit Segal also argued that the available options had narrowed considerably, identifying a Netanyahu-Eisenkot unity government or another election as the two principal remaining possibilities.

Mohammed Majadla, head of the news division at Radio Nas and a Channel 12 political commentator, offered a different assessment in an interview with News Media, arguing that both Ra’am and the Joint List were prepared to use their parliamentary influence to prevent Netanyahu from returning to power.

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“The two Arab lists agree on two things,” Majadla said in the Hebrew-language interview. “First, they are prepared to do everything within the political process to ensure Netanyahu does not return to power.”

According to Majadla, that could include joining a coalition, providing outside parliamentary support or abstaining from key votes.

He said their second shared priority was avoiding another election, which Arab political leaders fear could reverse their gains.

“The ball is now in Eisenkot’s court, not in the Arab parties’ court,” Majadla said. “As far as the Arab parties are concerned, I can tell you they are truly prepared to do everything to make this happen.”

Majadla suggested that public declarations should not necessarily be treated as final positions, particularly as parties seek leverage during coalition negotiations.

The difficulties extend beyond the Arab parties. Eisenkot’s potential partners include politicians who strongly oppose cooperation with ultra-Orthodox factions, while several opposition leaders campaigned against relying on Arab lawmakers to govern.

Unity government or another election?

A national unity government involving Likud and Yashar would offer a more straightforward mathematical route to a majority, but would require Eisenkot to reconsider his campaign pledge not to join a Netanyahu-led government.

For Netanyahu, the lengthy coalition formation process could provide additional opportunities. If Eisenkot receives the mandate to form a government but fails, President Isaac Herzog could assign the task to another candidate, potentially giving Netanyahu another chance to assemble a coalition. If successive efforts fail, Israel could face another election.

Despite the obstacles, the source familiar with opposition discussions pointed to Bennett and Lapid’s experience navigating complex coalition negotiations as an important asset.

“They’ve both played this game many times. They know it, and they’re not rattled,” the source said, according to a translation of the Hebrew-language conversation.

The source suggested that Bennett’s experience working with Netanyahu gives him a particular understanding of the prime minister’s negotiating tactics, while Lapid brings additional experience in coalition-building.

Former Prime Minister Yair Lapid, one of the opposition’s senior figures, acknowledged Friday that forming a government would be considerably more difficult than campaigning against Netanyahu.

“Now comes the truly hard part: trying to form a government,” Lapid wrote on X, urging supporters to remain patient.

“It takes place in small rooms, slowly, away from the cameras,” he wrote, according to a translation of his Hebrew-language statement, emphasizing the importance of negotiations conducted out of public view.

The negotiations will also unfold against the backdrop of the Trump administration’s Middle East agenda.

The source familiar with opposition discussions said understanding Washington’s regional priorities could become an important consideration in shaping a future government, although no specific American role in coalition negotiations has been confirmed.

The election results are scheduled to be formally submitted to President Herzog on November 4, following remaining verification procedures. The new Knesset is expected to be sworn in November 10.

For now, the election has settled the question of how Israelis voted, but not who will govern them. A source familiar with the negotiations concluded: “Whoever manages to forge new partnerships will move forward. Whoever doesn’t will remain stuck.”