President Donald Trump and the Republican Party appear headed for a difficult Election Day, according to the latest polling averages.
With only four days remaining before voters head to the polls, the fate of Trump’s final two years in office could hinge on how much ground Democrats gain against the GOP’s congressional majority. The numbers are raising serious concerns among Republicans on Capitol Hill.
The Daily Mail’s midterm power polling average, which combines and analyzes multiple polling averages, gives Democrats a notable advantage with less than a week left in the campaign.
Democrats currently command more than 51 percent support in the midterm benchmark, compared with 43 percent for Republicans.
That advantage of roughly eight points suggests late shifts among voters in traditionally Republican regions are making the midterm contests considerably more competitive than they appeared just weeks ago.
From Alaska and Texas to Maine, Republicans are facing troubling numbers across the electoral map.
Democratic candidates Mary Peltola, James Talarico and Troy Jackson are each leading their Republican rivals in recent surveys. However, many of those contests remain within the margin of error, leaving the outcomes far from certain.
Prediction market data from Kalshi puts Democrats at a 92 percent chance of taking control of the House and a 70 percent chance of winning the Senate.
National polling averages show Trump and Republicans trailing, raising the possibility of a Democratic sweep in Washington next week
With vulnerable Republicans seeking help from Trump, the president has been traveling across the country and staging rallies aimed at strengthening GOP candidates in a wide range of races.
Trump is scheduled to appear Friday at a rally in deep-red Daytona Beach, Florida, a region he carried by more than 20 points in 2024.
He will campaign alongside Congressman Byron Donalds, the Republican gubernatorial candidate facing Democrat David Jolly. Jolly is currently trailing Donalds by only a few points.
Rather than concentrating on the most competitive districts, Trump has largely limited his campaign appearances to heavily Republican areas.
Even during visits to swing states including Ohio, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina—as well as the more recently added battlegrounds of Kansas and Iowa—the president has favored Republican strongholds over politically mixed districts.
The approach suggests Trump is focusing on shoring up Republican territory under threat instead of taking his MAGA message directly to independent voters in swing areas.
With the election entering its final stretch, Trump’s schedule has also been marked by a series of cancellations and changes.
The president canceled planned stops in Iowa and Kansas earlier in the week, but both appearances had been reinstated by Friday morning.
Republican Senator Roger Marshall is trailing Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton by several points in multiple polls released Friday
A Washington Post poll published Friday found Hamilton leading Marshall by 10 points
The Kansas Senate race has tightened, but a new Emerson poll released Friday still showed Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall three points behind Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton.
A more devastating survey was published by the Washington Post the same day, showing Hamilton with a massive 10-point lead.
A Democrat has not won a US Senate seat in Kansas since the 1930s, but this cycle the tide seems as though it is changing.
That blue wave could also make landfall in Texas, where the state’s Attorney General Ken Paxton – a candidate hand-selected by Trump – is behind Democrat James Talarico in prediction market data and recent polling.
The Lone Star State has long been a GOP stronghold, but cracks in the MAGA base have appeared in even the seemingly most Republican areas.