The New York Times’ final round of polling ahead of this year’s midterm elections presents an especially difficult outlook for Republicans, with Democrats competitive across several major battlegrounds.
Polling conducted by the Times and the Siena Research Institute shows Democratic candidates either ahead or running even in a series of closely watched Senate contests.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El Sayed holds a double-digit advantage over Republican Mike Rogers, leading 53 percent to 42 percent in the survey.
The poll was completed before Democrat Haley Stevens announced her endorsement of Rogers on Sunday.
Texas is also emerging as a potential Democratic pickup. James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent in the race for the Lone Star State’s US Senate seat.
In Maine, Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is ahead of Republican incumbent Susan Collins, 51 percent to 45 percent. The result remains within the poll’s margin of error.
Ohio could deliver another surprise for Republicans. Despite President Donald Trump carrying the state three times, the survey gives Democrat Sherrod Brown a 49 percent to 44 percent lead over Republican incumbent John Husted.
The Times also places Iowa’s open Senate seat within Democratic reach, with Josh Turek narrowly leading Republican Ashley Hinson, 48 percent to 47 percent.
US President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a midterm campaign rally at Five Flags Center in Dubuque, Iowa on November 1, 2026
The US Capitol building is seen on a cloudy day on Capitol Hill in Washington in September
Kansas Republican Roger Marshall is another incumbent the survey projects could lose his seat on Election Day.
Marshall trails Democrat Adam Hamilton by five points, with Hamilton leading 49 percent to 44 percent.
Alaska is also listed as a possible Democratic gain. The polling shows former Democratic lawmaker Mary Peltola ahead of Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan.
Yet the poll’s methodology included a significant caveat that could affect the projections.
The Times noted that Democrats have once again been participating in its Times/Siena surveys at a considerably higher rate than Republicans during this election cycle.
DISCOVER MORE: Incredible tale of hero mother who captured FIVE Hamas terrorists – NewsFinale
In the final battleground surveys, registered White Democrats were approximately 30 percent more likely to complete the poll than registered White Republicans, according to the newspaper.
Trump has traveled extensively in an effort to energize Republican voters, staging a series of campaign rallies across the country. He appeared in Kansas and Iowa on Sunday and is scheduled to speak at Washington, DC’s Lincoln Memorial on Monday.
Still, Trump’s advisers have privately acknowledged that the president cannot be held solely responsible if Republicans deliver a disappointing performance on Tuesday night.
“The president can only do so much,” one Trump political adviser told the Daily Mail. “If we do fall short in the midterms, it’s not because of the president’s lack of trying or lack of effort.”
At rally after rally, Trump has asked supporters to treat the election as though his own name were on the ballot. While he is not a candidate, he has argued that his political legacy is at stake—and that he does not want to enter the final two years of his presidency as a lame duck.
Which US president are YOU? Take the quiz
The midterms are approaching and soon Americans across the USA will be voting. But do you know which US president, past or present, best reflects your political views?
Are you a George Washington or an Abraham Lincoln? Like Franklin D. Roosevelt or Donald Trump?
Take Daily Mail’s quiz and find out…
But the blame game has already begun with Trump privately faulting super PAC chief James Blair over campaign spending, Reuters reported earlier this month.
Chief of Staff Susie Wiles has also been beset by leaks suggesting she could be replaced after the election – despite the president declaring there is ‘zero’ chance he fires her.
Trump himself has publicly pointed the finger at rebel GOP Senator John Cornyn and Republican strategist Karl Rove should Ken Paxton fall short in the Texas Senate race, Bloomberg reported last week.
At a rally in Michigan at the end of October, Trump also told voters, ‘You will only have yourselves to blame, and I don’t think there’s any coming back from that either,’ if Republicans lose control of Congress.
In Alaska, Trump has also laid the groundwork for calling the election ‘rigged’ due to two men named Dan Sullivan being on the ballot, including the Republican incumbent.
Republicans currently hold 53 seats in the Senate, and Democrats need to pick up at least four of them to control the upper chamber in the next Congress.
In the US House of Representatives, Democrats need to flip at least three seats.