An untested favourite, a prominent Irish raider and a lightly weighted mare carrying a celebrated bloodline have helped turn this year’s Melbourne Cup into one of the most difficult editions to read.
Point Of Law strengthened his claims with an impressive Geelong Cup triumph, while Hopewell Rock brings improving European handicap form. Trustyourinstinct also appeals as a proven stayer with champion jockey James McDonald booked to ride.
The field also includes last year’s placegetters, a previous Melbourne Cup winner chasing another surprise victory and a group of progressive local horses hoping race fitness can bridge any perceived class gap.
Ciaron Maher has seven runners, while Joseph O’Brien saddles five of the 24 declared starters for Tuesday’s $10.2 million Melbourne Cup, which will be run over 3,200 metres at Flemington.
The famous race is scheduled for 3pm AEDT, or 2pm in Queensland. Rain in the forecast adds another layer of uncertainty, with the final track rating likely to have a major influence on the chances of several leading contenders.
Here is the argument for and against every runner in the Melbourne Cup field.
Australian jockey Jamie Melham holds the Melbourne Cup trophy with trainers Calvin McEvoy and Tony McEvoy following victory aboard Half Yours
Flemington is expected to draw another capacity crowd, with racegoers embracing the fashion as eagerly as the Melbourne Cup action
Punters can also enjoy a star-studded entertainment line-up, with Robbie Williams set to perform hits including Let Me Entertain You, Angels and She’s the One at The Elms Live Stage
1. SONS AND LOVERS
Irish raider Sons And Lovers will shoulder the Melbourne Cup’s top weight as he bids for victory from barrier three
Barrier 3 | 57.5kg | Joseph O’Brien | Dylan Browne McMonagle
TAB odds: $19*
*All odds are TAB fixed-win prices, correct at the time of publication on Monday, November 2, and subject to change.
Why he can win: He is an experienced international campaigner with reliable European staying form and a favourable draw that should help him settle without wasting energy. His latest second at Leopardstown came while carrying 63.5kg, and his preference for racing near the speed could prove valuable against rivals who may need everything to go their way from the back of the field.
Why he might not: Sons And Lovers must give weight to every other runner, including several progressive horses who may still have more improvement to come. Even with a smooth passage, he will need to deliver a top-level performance under a demanding handicap burden.
Verdict: A genuine Melbourne Cup threat whose dependable record makes him difficult to dismiss.
2. TRUSTYOURINSTINCT
James McDonald takes the ride on Trustyourinstinct, whose European staying credentials place him among the leading Melbourne Cup contenders
Barrier 18 | 57kg | Joseph O’Brien | James McDonald
TAB odds: $7.50
Why he can win: His Curragh Cup victory and fourth in the Irish St Leger give him strong staying credentials. He also possesses a change of speed, which could prove decisive if the Cup becomes a sprint after a steady middle section. McDonald is another considerable asset.
Why he might not: Barrier 18 creates an early dilemma: spend energy finding a position or concede ground to the leaders. He also needs to reproduce his European form on his Australian debut.
Verdict: One of the leading winning chances.
3. KNIGHT’S CHOICE
The 2024 Melbourne Cup winner Knight’s Choice reunites with Robbie Dolan in pursuit of another famous victory
Barrier 2 | 56.5kg | John Symons and Sheila Laxon | Robbie Dolan
TAB odds: $34
Why he can win: He has already done it. The 2024 winner returns with his successful jockey and a favourable inside draw. His Herbert Power placing this spring showed he can still produce a competitive staying performance.
Why he might not: He carries 5kg more than in 2024 and followed that encouraging Herbert Power effort with a disappointing Caulfield Cup. His previous victory cannot erase the concerns raised by his latest run.
Verdict: Proven at the task, but needs a sharp rebound.
4. MIDDLE EARTH
Middle Earth returns after finishing third last year, with Mark Zahra aboard and barrier one offering an economical passage
Barrier 1 | 56.5kg | Ciaron Maher | Mark Zahra
TAB odds: $15
Why he can win: Third last year, he has demonstrated that he can handle the distance and occasion. His preparation has again built towards this race, and Zahra has the experience to make an economical passage count.
Why he might not: Barrier one can become a trap if he settles behind tiring horses. His recent finishing positions require supporters to believe the longer trip will unlock significant improvement.
Verdict: Strong claims, provided the gaps arrive.
5. VAUBAN
Vauban faces a difficult assignment from barrier 22 as he prepares for his fourth Melbourne Cup appearance
Barrier 22 | 56.5kg | Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott | Jordan Childs
TAB odds: $51
Why he can win: His best European staying form establishes the ability, and sixth in last year’s Cup was his strongest performance in the race. His trainers know how to prepare a stayer for a major assignment.
Why he might not: This is his fourth attempt, the wide draw complicates matters and his Geelong Cup ninth offered little encouragement. He needs substantial second-up improvement.
Verdict: Past class keeps him in the conversation; current form makes him difficult to select.
6. ENFJAAR
Caulfield Cup placegetter Enfjaar must prove he can stretch his strong form to the Melbourne Cup’s demanding 3,200m
Barrier 8 | 56kg | Roger Varian | Ray Dawson
TAB odds: $26
Why he can win: A Glorious Stakes winner who backed up his overseas form with third in the Caulfield Cup. He has handled his introduction to Australian racing and draws to obtain another favourable position.
Why he might not: The rise to 3,200m is a significant examination for a horse whose recent success has come around 2,400m. A comfortable run will count for little if his stamina gives out late.
Verdict: Credible contender with a clear distance query.
7. ROYAL SUPREMACY
Royal Supremacy needs to rebound from a disappointing Caulfield Cup when he lines up for Ciaron Maher
Barrier 21 | 56kg | Ciaron Maher | Ben Allen
TAB odds: $51
Why he can win: His Metropolitan and Q22 victories demonstrate quality. At his best he can race prominently and make opponents chase, rather than depend on openings behind them.
Why he might not: His Caulfield Cup fade was a major negative. A wide gate risks additional work early, and he must prove he can sustain his effort over a strongly contested two miles.
Verdict: Needs a major form reversal.
8. WINE DARK SEA
Damian Lane faces a tricky task from barrier 23 aboard English visitor Wine Dark Sea
Barrier 23 | 56kg | Harry Charlton | Damian Lane
TAB odds: $41
Why he can win: His Geoffrey Freer victory provides a genuine staying foundation. He should be fitter for his Australian debut, and a more economical ride could produce a much better performance.
Why he might not: He weakened into 11th in the Caulfield Cup and has again drawn very wide. Lane faces a difficult balancing act between securing a position and preserving his horse.
Verdict: Has ability, but several things need to improve.
9. ASTERIX
New Zealand Derby winner Asterix will need a sharp improvement on his recent form to threaten at Flemington.
Barrier 6 | 55kg | Chris Waller | Jye McNeil
TAB odds: $61
Why he can win: A New Zealand Derby winner with subsequent Australian staying success, he has a suitable draw and an accomplished trainer-jockey combination. His best form is better than his latest results suggest.
Why he might not: His recent Group 1 performances have fallen short of the required standard. Saving ground will help, but he needs to rediscover his best and improve on it.
Verdict: An outsider requiring a substantial turnaround.
10. GOODIE TWO SHOES
Last year’s runner-up Goodie Two Shoes returns seeking to go one better, carrying 3.5kg more this time
Barrier 19 | 55kg | Joseph O’Brien | Wayne Lordan
TAB odds: $26
Why she can win: Last year’s runner-up has already answered the questions about travelling, Flemington and 3,200m. Her Lillie Langtry win this season shows she retains the ability to compete strongly.
Why she might not: She rises 3.5kg from last year and again starts wide. Her European form has been mixed, so a repeat of her best cannot be assumed.
Verdict: A credible chance who merits consideration beyond the favourites.
11. JUJA KIBO
Juja Kibo enters the Cup chasing a third consecutive victory after winning the Metropolitan and Moonee Valley Gold Cup
Barrier 14 | 55kg | Ciaron Maher | Sam Clipperton
TAB odds: $12
Why he can win: Successive wins in the Metropolitan and Moonee Valley Gold Cup make him one of the field’s form runners. Clipperton knows him well, and he has shown the acceleration to capitalise when a race opens up.
Why he might not: His previous Sydney Cup attempt was disappointing. Recent wins do not settle whether he can produce the same finishing effort after 3,200m, while weight penalties have made his task tougher.
Verdict: Deserves respect, with stamina the decisive question.
12. HOPEWELL ROCK
English challenger Hopewell Rock brings strong Ebor form to Flemington, with Zac Lloyd taking the ride
Barrier 15 | 54.5kg | George Boughey | Zac Lloyd
TAB odds: $10
Why he can win: A narrow Ebor second carrying 60.5kg makes his Cup weight attractive. His previous Goodwood win over Small Fry links neatly with Point Of Law’s Geelong Cup form, and his lightly raced profile leaves room for improvement.
Why he might not: He arrives without an Australian lead-up race and has not raced over 3,200m. Barrier 15 also leaves Lloyd needing cover without sacrificing too much position.
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: California Beach Shooting Leaves Multiple Dead, Others Injured
Verdict: A leading chance with an appealing combination of form and weight.
13. ONESMOOTHOPERATOR
Onesmoothoperator is chasing a change of fortune after finishing unplaced in his previous two Melbourne Cups
Barrier 13 | 54.5kg | Tim Fitzsimmons | Declan Bates
TAB odds: $61
Why he can win: Previous Geelong Cup and Moonee Valley Gold Cup victories show he can perform in Australian staying races. A return to that level would make him more competitive than his recent results imply.
Why he might not: He finished 12th and 16th in his previous Melbourne Cups. His latest Geelong Cup effort was well below his best, leaving little recent evidence of an imminent revival.
Verdict: Difficult to recommend on current form.
14. SOUL OF SPAIN
Sydney Cup runner-up Soul Of Spain brings proven 3200m credentials to the race for trainer Chris Waller
Barrier 5 | 54.5kg | Chris Waller | Tommy Berry
TAB odds: $34
Why he can win: His Sydney Cup second establishes genuine 3,200m credentials. Barrier five offers the chance to save energy, and a more even run could help after his mid-race exertions in the Caulfield Cup.
Why he might not: His recent form is patchy, and this presents a deeper challenge than the Sydney Cup. Proven stamina does not automatically provide the finishing speed required to win.
Verdict: An interesting outsider for the placings.
15. ZAHRANN
Naturalism winner Zahrann will attempt to improve on his Caulfield Cup sixth with Ben Melham in the saddle
Barrier 11 | 54.5kg | Ciaron Maher | Ben Melham
TAB odds: $26
Why he can win: His Naturalism victory demonstrated his Australian ability, and his Caulfield Cup sixth contained enough late work to keep him in contention. His draw gives Melham options.
Why he might not: The heavy-track Turnbull defeat was poor, while 3,200m remains unproven. He needs a stronger finishing performance than he produced at Caulfield.
Verdict: A plausible improver, with distance and conditions both important.
16. SO YOU ARE
So You Are arrives on a four-race winning streak, with Rachel King aboard the improving Bjorn Baker-trained stayer
Barrier 7 | 54kg | Bjorn Baker | Rachel King
TAB odds: $12
Why he can win: Four consecutive victories, including the Bendigo Cup, show a horse thriving in his new stable. King knows him well, his draw is favourable and his fitness should be an asset late.
Why he might not: He moves into a much stronger race and attempts 3,200m for the first time. Winning momentum alone cannot answer either question.
Verdict: A legitimate contender whose improvement now faces its toughest test.
17. FUTURE HISTORY
Jamie Melham partners Future History as she seeks another Melbourne Cup victory after winning the race previously
Barrier 12 | 53.5kg | Greg Hickman | Jamie Melham
TAB odds: $51
Why he can win: He has extensive staying experience and a manageable draw. Melham’s booking adds a rider who knows what it takes to win this race.
Why he might not: His recent performances have not suggested a horse ready to beat this field. His previous Cup appearance also ended well outside the placings.
Verdict: Needs a performance far above his recent level.
18. JAMES J BRADDOCK
Epsom Derby placegetter James J Braddock has drawn the outside barrier, leaving Craig Williams with an early tactical challenge
Barrier 24 | 53.5kg | Joseph O’Brien | Craig Williams
TAB odds: $19
Why he can win: Third in the Epsom Derby is a compelling piece of class form. He remains relatively unexposed and carries an attractive weight, with Williams capable of managing a difficult assignment.
Why he might not: The outside gate threatens to undo those advantages. His two runs after Epsom were less convincing, and the extra distance remains another unknown.
Verdict: A dangerous wildcard whose early position could decide his race.
19. KIZLYAR
Ascot Stakes winner Kizlyar could benefit if the Melbourne Cup develops into a searching test of stamina
Barrier 20 | 53.5kg | Joseph O’Brien | Beau Mertens
TAB odds: $41
Why he can win: His Ascot Stakes victory over approximately 4,000m leaves little doubt about endurance. A genuinely testing race could play to his strengths and expose less seasoned stayers.
Why he might not: His Australian debut in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup was poor. He needs to improve markedly, and barrier 20 makes an efficient passage harder to secure.
Verdict: A stamina-based outsider, most interesting if the race becomes a slog.
20. POINT OF LAW
Geelong Cup winner Point Of Law is among the leading chances despite preparing for just his sixth career start
Barrier 9 | 53kg | Ciaron Maher | Ethan Brown
TAB odds: $7
Why he can win: His Geelong Cup victory combined sustained speed with determination under pressure. Barrier nine gives Brown options, and his lightly raced profile suggests further improvement is possible.
Why he might not: This is only his sixth career start. He faces a bigger occasion, a longer race and seasoned rivals, while genuinely wet ground would introduce another uncertainty.
Verdict: A justified leading chance, with experience the obvious vulnerability.
21. STRICTLY BUSINESS
Former VRC Oaks winner Strictly Business needs to rediscover her best form, with Dean Yendall taking the ride
Barrier 4 | 53kg | Thomas Carberry | Dean Yendall
TAB odds: $71
Why she can win: Her VRC Oaks victory proves she can excel in a staying race at Flemington. An inside draw offers an economical run if she can rediscover that performance.
Why she might not: Her spring results have been poor, including last in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup. Nothing in her recent form suggests the required revival is close.
Verdict: One of the hardest runners to make a winning case for.
22. MR MONACO
Bart Cummings winner Mr Monaco gives apprentice Jabez Johnstone a chance to claim Australian racing’s biggest prize
Barrier 16 | 52.5kg | Ciaron Maher | Jabez Johnstone
TAB odds: $23
Why he can win: His Bart Cummings victory and Moonee Valley Gold Cup third establish strong recent Flemington form. A light weight gives him a chance to stretch that improvement into a bigger race.
Why he might not: His previous Sydney Cup attempt raises a distance concern. From barrier 16, an inefficient trip could leave him vulnerable before the final stages.
Verdict: Competitive recent form, but still has to prove his stamina.
23. ZAKOUMA
Andrew Ramsden winner Zakouma carries just 52kg, with William Pike aboard for trainer Grahame Begg
Barrier 10 | 52kg | Grahame Begg | William Pike
TAB odds: $34
Why he can win: His Andrew Ramsden win secured an early Cup berth and allowed a deliberate preparation. The light weight and useful draw give Pike the ingredients for an economical staying ride.
Why he might not: This is a significant class rise. His qualifying victory established staying potential, rather than proof he can beat a field of this quality.
Verdict: A possible surprise placegetter, with class the main obstacle.
24. SHOCKLETZ
Shockletz will attempt to emulate her Melbourne Cup-winning sire Shocking, carrying a light weight of 51kg
Barrier 17 | 51kg | Ciaron Maher | Harry Coffey, subject to fitness clearance
TAB odds: $9.50
Why she can win: The Archer Stakes winner gets in with just 51kg and has shaped as a mare building towards a stronger stamina test. Her recent Tesio second showed she still has a finishing burst, while her sire Shocking won the Cup in 2009.
Why she might not: She has not raced beyond 2500m and starts wide. Coffey has been cleared to race following his Derby Day fall, but that injury will still be lingering large.
Verdict: A genuine chance at the weights, with her final riding arrangements still a detail to monitor.
OUR SELECTIONS
1. Hopewell Rock
2. Point Of Law
3. Trustyourinstinct
4. Middle Earth
Best outsider for the placings: Soul Of Spain.
Hopewell Rock’s European handicap form and weight make him the narrow selection. Point Of Law has the most persuasive Australian lead-up performance, while Trustyourinstinct brings established staying quality and McDonald’s expertise.
Middle Earth’s proven Cup credentials earn him the fourth spot, although Shockletz’s light weight and So You Are’s improvement make both difficult to dismiss.
EXPLORE MORE: What Life Behind Bars Looks Like for the Alexander Brothers