California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s prospects of reaching the White House appear to have weakened following the midterm elections, as prediction markets now place his chances of securing the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination near their lowest point yet.
Newsom’s odds briefly fell to 7% in recent trading, setting a new low for the California Democrat as bettors shifted their attention toward other possible contenders.
In the latest market snapshot, Newsom stood at 11%, with more than $28.3 million wagered on his chances of becoming the Democratic nominee in 2028.
He trailed Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, who led the field at 27%, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose odds reached 17%.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris was listed at 6%, while former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro each held 5% odds.
Overall, the 2028 presidential market has drawn more than $1.3 billion in trading volume—an extraordinary level of interest given that the election remains two years away.
Newsom has long been considered a potential Democratic contender. He has raised his national profile through repeated clashes with President Trump and efforts to establish himself as one of the party’s most prominent voices.
Still, the latest market activity indicates that traders are increasingly looking to other Democrats as possible successors to the party’s presidential nomination.
Prediction-market odds represent traders’ expectations and can change rapidly in response to political developments. They are not scientific polls and should not be viewed as a definitive assessment of any candidate’s prospects.