The Coalition is seeking to tighten access to the National Disability Insurance Scheme, with support provided to non-citizens expected to cost more than $54 billion over the next decade.
Independent Parliamentary Budget Office analysis shows permanent residents and eligible visa holders currently account for almost 10 per cent of the NDIS’s yearly spending.
Annual NDIS expenditure on non-citizens stands at about $4.6 billion, but that figure is projected to increase to $6.45 billion by 2036-37.
The projected cost is comparable with major federal commitments including the Paid Parental Leave scheme, estimated at $4.7 billion, and Australia’s $5.5 billion AUKUS investment.
Payments to NDIS participants who are permanent residents or eligible New Zealand visa holders are also forecast to grow by roughly five per cent each year.
Opposition Leader Angus Taylor commissioned the PBO analysis, which was reported by The Australian, as the Coalition intensifies its criticism of Labor’s economic management.
The Albanese government is facing increasing pressure to rein in the disability scheme after promising to remove 160,000 participants and achieve $38 billion in savings by 2030.
The Coalition has proposed restricting access to 17 welfare payments and benefits so they would be available only to Australian citizens.
Anthony Albanese is under pressure to rein in NDIS costs
Anthony Albanese is under pressure to rein in NDIS costs
Under the proposal, people applying for NDIS assistance in the future would need to be Australian citizens.
The Coalition wants the changes to begin on July 1, 2028, while existing recipients would be protected through grandfathering provisions.
Existing exemptions and obligations arising from international agreements would continue to apply.
Taylor accused the government of steering Australia towards “economic ruin”, saying Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers had “lost control” of public spending.
He argued the figures demonstrated the need to confront rising costs and ensure taxpayer-funded assistance was primarily directed to Australians.
“While families struggle to make ends meet and Australian businesses battle to stay afloat, Labor is spending $5bn a year giving NDIS to non-citizens. Their priorities are all wrong,” Taylor told The Australian.
“Jim Chalmers is desperately searching for savings but he is looking everywhere except at the spending blowouts at the heart of Labor’s economic problems.
“We have put forward $31bn in savings the government could adopt today. That includes putting Australians first by reserving the NDIS and other welfare payments for Australian citizens.”
In April, NDIS and Health Minister Mark Butler used a National Press Club speech to set out the government’s plan to reduce the scheme’s participant numbers by 160,000 by 2030.
Foreign citizens should not receive NDIS support, Coalition leader Angus Taylor said
Labor is relying on significant cuts to NDIS spending to strengthen the budget’s long-term outlook, with the scheme representing one of the government’s largest financial commitments.
Earlier this month, Treasury chief actuary Guy Thornburn told the National Disability Insurance Agency he had not been given enough information to verify the government’s planned $38.2 billion reduction in costs over four years.
Acting Prime Minister Richard Marles said the government had already made considerable progress in slowing the scheme’s growth.
“In the last budget alone, we cut $37bn from the NDIS… that is a really significant saving in terms of making sure that the growth of that scheme is kept in check,” Marles said.
Marles acknowledged that reducing NDIS funding involved difficult decisions, but maintained that controlling expenditure was vital to responsible economic management.
The government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook is expected to be completed after Albanese returns from official visits to Turkey, the Philippines and China.
Labor has also committed to announcing a substantial savings package as part of the economic update.