A look at the election status before the final leaders' debate

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As Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition leader Peter Dutton prepare to face off for the fourth and , Dutton is embarking on to turn around voter sentiment.

Polling throughout the five-week campaign has consistently shown Albanese cement his lead as preferred prime minister over Dutton, as the Coalition began to increasingly trail Labor on a two-party preferred basis.

Just days out from the 3 May election, has surged to its highest two-party-preferred rating this term.

Key issues

The Labor party now leads the Coalition by 53.3 per cent to 46.5 per cent, according to YouGov polling — a 0.5 per cent increase from the 18 April poll.

Labor also leads on the primary vote for the first time this term, recording 33.5 per cent compared to the Coalition’s 31 per cent, marking a 2 per cent decline since the last poll and positioning them 4.7 per cent below their 2022 federal election result.

If replicated at next week’s election, this would represent the lowest primary vote ever recorded by the Coalition since founding in 1944.

Cost of living, , and migration remain key election issues as 18,098,797 enrolled Australians — 98.2 per cent of those eligible, a record national enrolment rate — prepare to cast their vote by 6 pm next Saturday, with .

Is the Coalition resonating with young and multicultural voters?

The latest polling by Redbridge and Accent Research indicates Labor’s two-party preferred support is in the 60s among diverse voters and young voters — the latter who hold immense power in this election, outnumbering baby boomers for the very first time.

Redbridge research shows Dutton’s attempts to tie migration to a housing and cost of living crisis may be alienating multicultural Australians.

“Across all our research, a consistent theme is emerging: many [diverse Australians] view the Coalition not just as indifferent, but to their presence, their desire to build a life here, practice their culture and reunite with their family,” Redbridge director Kos Samaras told SBS News.

“As a result, Labor’s primary vote has surged into the mid-40s among Australians who speak a language other than English at home. Critically, this will hinder the Coalition’s efforts to win back key seats like Bennelong and Reid.”

People walking down a busy footpath and browsing at a fruit stall.

The multicultural electoral division of Bennelong has become a political hotbed in this election. Source: AAP / Dan Himbrechts

Which seats remain key?

This week, that will see him visit up to 28 key electorates, mainly held by Labor, as he makes his bid to gain the 21 seats needed to secure a majority government.

The Opposition leader will start his final push in Melbourne’s west, traditionally a Labor heartland, at a rally with hundreds of party faithful before crisscrossing Australia, where he will spruik the coalition’s promised cost-of-living relief measures, economic management, and national security message.

While in Victoria, Dutton will attempt to wrestle Goldstein, Kooyong, Aston, Dunkley, Gorton and Hawke from Labor.

Peter Dutton sits in a car and smiles while showing a thumb up.

Opposition leader Peter Dutton will be criss-crossing the country this week in a desperate attempt to drum up last-minute support ahead of next Saturday’s election. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas

In the NSW battleground, the opposition leader will target Mackellar, Paterson, Dobell, Bennelong, and Gilmore. In WA, South Australia, Tasmania, and Queensland, the coalition will go for Bullwinkel, Boothby, Lyons, and Moreton, among others.

Labor is ahead in two ultra-tight seats a week out from the election, according to YouGov polling commissioned by AAP. These include Lyons, a sprawling rural seat covering Tasmania’s centre and east, and Braddon, which covers the island’s northwest and west.

Albanese and Dutton made multiple trips to Braddon before official campaigning to show support for the aquaculture industry and salmon farm workers in the face of

Political analysts believe that claiming seats in Western Sydney, which makes up roughly 10 per cent of Australia’s population, could also be key to winning the election.

Two of the debates have been held here, with Sunday night’s debate to be held at Channel Seven’s studios in Sydney.

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