Analysis of the Trump-Putin call: Russia's commitments and their potential impact on peace in Ukraine

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In a closely watched phone call on Wednesday morning, United States President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin discussed ceasefire, aid to Ukraine, and surprisingly, ice hockey.

Here’s a look at what the US and Russian leaders agreed upon and where they diverged in their more than 90-minute chat.

Energy grid truce

The main win for Trump as he seeks to broker an end to the fighting was an agreement to halt attacks on the power grid for 30 days.

“Vladimir Putin responded positively to this initiative and immediately gave the Russian military a corresponding command” to halt “strikes on energy infrastructure facilities,” the Kremlin readout of the call said.

Immediate peace talks

The leaders also agreed to start negotiations on a maritime ceasefire for the Black Sea and, eventually, a full truce.

“These negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East,” the White House readout said.

But Putin stopped short of accepting a broader US-backed 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine has said it is ready to accept.

Putin raised “significant points” about preventing such a truce from being used by Ukraine to mobilise more soldiers and rearm itself, the Kremlin said in a statement after the phone call between the two leaders.

Trump had been pressuring Putin to agree to a 30-day ceasefire that he hoped would move one step closer to ending Europe’s biggest conflict since World War Two.

The war has killed or wounded hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions and reduced entire towns to rubble.

Warming ties

Trump and Putin both spoke of improving US-Russian ties.

“A future with an improved bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia has huge upside,” including “enormous economic deals” and “geopolitical stability”, the White House said.

“A mutual interest was expressed in the normalisation of bilateral relations,” the Kremlin said.

‘Cessation’ of military and intelligence aid to Ukraine

But there were signs of potential trouble spots ahead, including a call from Putin for a “complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv”.

Putin also said an “essential” condition for any truce would be halting the “forced mobilisation” of Ukrainian soldiers and the country’s “rearmament”.

Prisoner swap

Putin and Trump also agreed on a Russian-Ukrainian prisoner exchange, with 175 to be freed by each side, according to the Kremlin.

Russia will also return 23 wounded Ukrainian soldiers “as a goodwill gesture”, it said.

Ice hockey matches

The Kremlin said Trump had “supported” an idea from Putin “to organise hockey matches in the US and Russia between Russian and American” pros.

Things unsaid

Some points were notable by their absence.

Besides failing to announce the full ceasefire sought by Trump, the two sides also made no mention of potential territorial concessions.

Trump has hinted that a permanent peace deal could include territorial concessions by Ukraine and control of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, infuriating Ukraine.

Trump’s attempts to engage with Putin since returning to the White House in January have left traditional US allies wary.

Ukraine and its Western allies have long described Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an imperialist land grab, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Putin of deliberately prolonging the war.

Zelenskyy, who is in Finland to discuss NATO support for Ukraine, said Ukraine’s sovereignty is non-negotiable, and Russia must relinquish the territory it has seized.

He said Russia’s ambitions will not stop at Ukraine if it is allowed to keep the territory it has seized.

On Wednesday, Zelenskyy accused Russia of having “effectively rejected” proposals for a ceasefire following a barrage of strikes on civilian infrastructure.

Soon after the Trump-Putin phone call, air raid sirens wailed and explosions rang out in Ukraine, with Zelenskyy writing on X that a hospital in Sumy had been struck.

“Today, Putin effectively rejected the proposal for a full ceasefire,” Zelenskyy said.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen warned on Tuesday that Russia had massively expanded its military-industrial production capacity in preparation for “future confrontation with European democracies”.

Speaking to Trump on Tuesday, United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer “reiterated that all must work together to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position to secure a just and lasting peace,” his spokesperson said.

Trump warns Russia of ‘severe consequences’ if no Ukraine ceasefire deal image

Trump’s negotiation efforts may be prolonging the war, says expert

But while talks between Trump and Putin might be branded as an attempt to negotiate peace, one expert thinks it’s doing the opposite.

Dr Charles Miller is a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at The Australian National University. He said US involvement in negotiations may be prolonging the war.

“Look, if there is a ceasefire, a temporary ceasefire, then I suppose the idea is that you’re building trust little by little, essentially between the two sides,” Miller told SBS News.

“I think what we’ve really got now, though, is a race between Russia and Ukraine to try and convince the Americans that’s the other side that doesn’t want peace.

“We’ll continue this kind of dance where each side is trying to convince the Americans that they’re not the ones to blame for any kind of resumption of the fighting, but I think there are really irreconcilable differences between the two sides right now.”

Miller said with Trump in the White House, Russia will be less inclined to reach a ceasefire deal, adding that in order to reach a deal, Europe needs to “step up”.

“The fundamental problem in actually ending the war right now is that the Ukrainians are not likely to make a deal that involves them not having the ability to deter a future Russian attack, and the Russians are not likely to make a deal right now because they think that with Trump in the White House, things are only going to get better for them.

“It’s going to be very, very difficult to get a genuine lasting peace between Russia and Ukraine this year, especially if Russia is not having any serious pressure put on it by the United States.”

With additional reporting by Agence France-Presse and Reuters.