Anticipating the Outcomes of the Third Russia-Ukraine Peace Negotiations

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Ukraine wants the return of prisoners of war and “children abducted by Russia”, while the Kremlin said it will “pursue our interests” as peace talks between the two nations are set to begin on Wednesday.

Two previous ceasefire negotiations have led to the exchange of thousands of prisoners of war and the remains of dead soldiers.

There is now renewed pressure to end the war.

What do we know about the ceasefire talks?

Russia and Ukraine will meet in Istanbul for the latest ceasefire talks, which will take place at the same venue where previous negotiations in May and June failed to yield a ceasefire, the Agence France-Presse news agency reported.

The Istanbul talks could focus on further prisoner exchanges and a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a senior Ukrainian official told AFP.

Russia, however, has signalled that a meaningful breakthrough isn’t expected anytime soon.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters earlier this week the two sides have “diametrically opposed” positions on how to end the war in Ukraine.

One of the main sticking points at previous meetings has been over territory, as Russia has seized swathes of Ukrainian land since its invasion began three years ago.

Ukraine continues to seek the return of the occupied territories, but Russia has shown no intent to retreat.

“There is no reason to expect any breakthroughs in the category of miracles — it is hardly possible in the current situation,” Peskov said.

“We intend to pursue our interests, we intend to ensure our interests and fulfil the tasks that we set for ourselves from the very beginning.”

Asked if he could provide a sense of how the Kremlin viewed the potential timeframe for a possible peace agreement, Peskov said he could offer no guidance on timing.

“There is a lot of work to be done before we can talk about the possibility of some top-level meetings,” he said.

Zelenskyy outlined what he is seeking in the negotiations.

“The agenda from our side is clear: the return of prisoners of war, the return of children abducted by Russia, and the preparation of a leaders’ meeting,” he said.

What happened last time?

At the time, Russia told Ukraine it would only agree to end the war if Ukraine gave up big new chunks of territory and accepted limits on the size of its army, according to a memorandum reported by Russian media.

The Russian memorandum, which was published by the Interfax news agency, said a settlement of the war would require international recognition of Crimea — a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 — and four other regions of Ukraine that Russia has claimed as its own territory. Ukraine would have to withdraw its forces from all of them.

Peskov suggested Russia still holds this view.

“There is our draft memorandum; there is a draft memorandum that has been handed over by the Ukrainian side. There is to be an exchange of views and talks on these two drafts, which are diametrically opposed so far,” he said.

Ukraine has repeatedly rejected the Russian conditions as tantamount to surrender.

— Additional reporting by the Reuters news agency