Australia 2035: Unveiling the Impact of Population Growth, Fertility Trends, and Migration Patterns

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Australia’s population will grow by another four million people over the next decade despite falling migration and fertility rates.

The federal government’s latest population statement predicts the current population of 27.5 million will grow to 31.5 million by the end of 2035. It’s roughly 150,000 lower than projected in the previous population statement.

The Centre for Population, which collates the report, had previously predicted Australia would reach 31.65 million people by 2035.

Australia’s population growth is anticipated to slow to 1.3 percent over the next year, marking a decline from previous forecasts. This adjustment reflects changes in migration trends as well as fertility rates.

One of the primary reasons for this deceleration is the easing of net overseas migration, which had hit record levels in recent times. This shift is poised to significantly impact various regions, with some areas experiencing more pronounced changes in their population dynamics than others.

According to a recent report, the Centre for Population initially estimated that Australia’s population would reach a staggering 31.65 million by the year 2035. However, current trends suggest that this projection might not be realized as swiftly as once anticipated.

As the nation adapts to these evolving demographic patterns, understanding the underlying factors and their implications becomes crucial for policymakers and communities alike.

A chart showing Australia's projected population.

The Centre for Population had previously predicted Australia would reach 31.65 million people by 2035. Source: SBS News

It is expected to total 260,000 people in 2025–26, well below the peak of 556,000 recorded in the 12 months to the September quarter of 2023.

The decline has been driven largely by fewer arrivals of temporary migrants, particularly those holding student and visitor visas.

Although departures have increased overall since 2023–24, migrants on temporary visas are leaving Australia at lower rates than in the past.

Fertility rates continue long-term decline

While two-child families remain the most common family size, smaller families are becoming more prevalent, and larger families continue to decline.

Australia’s total fertility rate is projected to fall to 1.42 in 2025–26, remaining well below the “replacement level” of 2.1 children per woman.

Fertility has been below this benchmark for almost 50 years.

Life expectancy on the rise

Australia continues to rank among countries with the highest life expectancy. By 2035–36, life expectancy is expected to reach 87.1 years for women and 83.4 years for men.

The collected data show health outcomes have shifted alongside longer life expectancy.

The five leading causes of death accounted for one-third of all registered deaths in 2024.

In order, these were: dementia (including Alzheimer’s disease), ischaemic heart disease (reduced or blocked blood and oxygen supply to the heart), chronic lower respiratory diseases, cerebrovascular diseases (conditions that affect blood flow to the brain) and lung cancer.

Median age of Australians to increase

While Australia remains younger than many comparable economies, the population continues to age due to lower fertility and longer life expectancy.

The median age is expected to rise by 1.8 years to 40.2 years by 2035–36, about half the rate of ageing experienced during the 1990s.

The number of very elderly Australians is projected to grow rapidly.

By 2065–66, there are expected to be 1.9 million people aged 85 and over — more than triple the current figure.

Regional populations are generally older than those in capital cities across all states and territories, except for the Northern Territory.

Varying rates of growth across the country

Population growth and ageing patterns differ significantly across Australia.

Western Australia is projected to record the highest population growth rate at 1.8 per cent in 2025–26, while Tasmania is expected to grow the slowest at 0.1 per cent.

Capital cities are projected to grow nearly twice as fast as regional areas, with Sydney and Melbourne both expected to surpass 8 million residents in the 2050s.