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HomeAUAustralia Braces for a Dry and Warm Autumn Season

Australia Braces for a Dry and Warm Autumn Season

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Australia will sweat through a dry, hot autumn as long-range forecasts show above-average temperatures and below-average rainfall on the horizon.

Australians should brace for warm, restless nights as the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) forecasts above-average nighttime temperatures across much of the nation during the autumn months of March, April, and May 2026.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) also currently rates the chances of an El Niño developing in the second half of the year at about 90 per cent, bringing more hot, dry conditions.

In an outlook that leaves little room for cool comfort, the BOM predicts with around 80 percent certainty that temperatures will trend above average across most regions of the country during this period. Residents of New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania, and Western Australia can expect to see maximum temperatures soar significantly higher than usual.

Ocean swimmers head into the water at Coogee in Sydney as the sun shines on the water.
Autumn is looking dry and hot based on current long-range forecasts. (Max Mason-Hubers)

In Queensland and the Northern Territory, the likelihood of experiencing above-average temperatures is slightly lower, hovering around 50 percent. Nonetheless, the forecast suggests that much of Australia will not escape the heat, even as the summer months come to a close.

As Australians prepare for these warmer conditions, it’s crucial to plan accordingly, ensuring that homes and communities are ready to cope with the extended heat. This anticipated weather pattern serves as a reminder of the changing climate and its impact on daily life.

Chances are a little lower in Queensland and the Northern Territory at about 50 per cent.

Temperatures will stay high when the sun goes down too.

According to the BOM, it’s very likely overnight temperatures will be above average across much of Australia.

A map showing the chance of Australia's temperature exceeding the median from March to May 2026. It shows very high chances across most of the country.
Warmer than average days and nights are likely across most of Australia in autumn 2026. (Bureau of Meteorology)

The BOM is predicting below-average autumn rainfall across most of Australia’s southern regions, including NSW, the ACT, Victoria, South Australia, and most parts of WA.

North-eastern Tasmania and South Australia’s interior specifically are forecast to receive unusually low rainfall.

The drier-than-average conditions could put some states on high alert for bushfire risk.

It’s a slightly different story up north.

The rainfall forecast for March to May in much of northern Australia isn’t leaning one way or another yet, meaning it could be below, above, or right on average.

And parts of Cape York Peninsula, the Top End and northern Kimberley are slated for above-average rainfall in March.

A map showing the chance of Australia's rainfall exceeding the median from March to May 2026. It shows very low chances for the southern half of the country.
Drier than average conditions are expected across Australia’s southern half in autumn 2026. (Bureau of Meteorology)

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