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Large parts of Australia are now more likely to end the year with a moisture-laden La Nina weather pattern after forecasters changed their modelling.
Climate change and the rapid warming of oceans has forced the Bureau of Meteorology to revise its analysis for the two major weather patterns: El Nino and La Nina.
The former brings warmer conditions while La Nina leads to increased cloud and rain.
Both weather patterns are influenced by sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The bureau’s forecasters now use a new method, called the relative Niño index, for their analysis, to take into account the rapidly rising sea temperatures.
It says without the shake-up, El Nino may seem more frequent and La Nina may appear less common.
Aside from weather forecasting afficionados, most Australians will be more interested in what it means for our approaching summer weather.
The answer is La Nina is more likely based on the relative index, which is in line with current seasonal outlooks.
They forecast above average over large areas of Australia’s north and east during the last three months of this year.
Daytime temperatures may also dip across these regions during late spring into early summer because of the increased cloud cover.